In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin fell 30% after falling below $90,000. This was typical of a pullback during bull runs, but the correction also broke through key support, prompting some reputable analysts to turn bearish on the medium term.
This begs the question: at what level will the bear market situation apply, and are we currently in one?
According to pseudonymous analyst Jackis, even a further decline to $70,000 will not mark a “typical bear market” but a “macro range for 2025.” For him, the current weakness is a “temporary pause in the macro trend.” He added,
“But unlike 2022 or the first quarter of this year, this decline is not driven fundamentally or by a broader risk profile, but rather by an exchange of hands between OGs and institutions.”
BTC is struggling with key support
However, on the price charts, the current Bitcoin price action is more than just a monthly range. Historically, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA, blue line) has served as the main support for bull markets.
A continued stay below the 50W EMA marked the latest bear market conditions.
The extended correction below $100,000 in mid-November pushed price action out of the bull market below this key support. Unless it is recovered, the bullish uptrend could be in jeopardy.
Source: BTC/USD, TradingView
Thus, a drop to $60,000-$70,000 would mark a potential bottom or reversal of a “bear market” based on the 50W EMA.
The zone would be the previous breakout level that eased BTC’s deeper corrections according to historical data. Even the leader of ex-Ark Invest, Chris Burniske, echoed these prospects.
BTC losses near bear market regimes
From an on-chain data perspective, press time levels appeared to be almost completely under bear market capitulation conditions. The aSOPR metric, which tracks whether coins are sold at a profit or loss and sentiment, had almost fallen below 1.
Previous dips below 1 reinforced bear market capitulations and also marked market reversals.
Source: Glassnode
The same outlook was reinforced by the Total Supply in Loss. About 7 million BTC supply is now lost – the highest during this cycle. It was close to the 8-10 million BTC loss that characterized previous bearish regimes. noted Glass junction.
“This pattern closely mirrors the early transition phases of previous cycles, where increasing investor frustration preceded a shift toward more pronounced bearish conditions and intensified capitulation at lower prices.”
Source: Glassnode
Overall, the current $88,000 level and the 30% dip have put the market under extreme pressure. A further price decline to $60,000-$70,000 could trigger losses that mirror previous bearish regimes.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin could trigger an earlier capitulation of the bear market if its value falls to $60,000-$70,000.
- Reclaiming $98k-$100k or the 50W EMA could strengthen the bullish uptrend.