The 200-week moving average is one of the most critical macro indicators for Bitcoin, serving as the definitive gap between bear market capitulation and long-term accumulation. While BTC price movements are notorious for their sudden, dramatic swings, history shows that the technical indicator 200 WMA has stood out with remarkable consistency.
How the 200 WMA Defined Each Bitcoin Cycle
Luke Broyles, an observer of Bitcoin market cycles, has done just that noted on This track record is leading many to wonder whether they should keep a lump sum on the sidelines until that time comes.
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Broyles acknowledges that while BTC has been on a downward trend, it hasn’t been the worst idea in the world. Even if it is not a miracle cure. As Broyles explains, three out of five times it reached the 200 WMA, it was only there for a few days. The worst part is that when BTC shows a rising trend, the 200 WMA rises along with it, making the ideal entry a constant move goal.
However, Broyles provided a vivid example from recent history history. In April 2023, BTC was $31,000, and the 200 WMA was $25,000. Before that, BTC was $16,000 months ago, and many thought: withdraw in the $20,000 range was likely. In the meantime, the analyst is calling for a buy at 31,000. During that time, 200 WMA was so close, and they cared more about bragging about the fact that I bought at the 200 WMA instead of simply accumulating BTC.
By the time BTC briefly dipped below the line again, it was already at $28,000, and that was the last chance. Currently, the 200 WMA is comfortably above $50,000, and if BTC’s uptrend continues, that line could rise to $70,000 or even $100,000 before price ever visits it again.
Why Bitcoin Remains Bullish on Higher Timeframes
An analyst known as Scient did just that emphasized that BTC is on the higher timeframes. The blue zone remains a must-hold area for bullish continuation, with the price consolidating above $108,000 for almost three months. This range could allow for a clean turn from that level to support before a major expansion phase.
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Furthermore, all liquidity below the lowest levels (RLs) has been wiped out. The recent decline followed a higher low (HH) on the 3-day chart, and now BTC is right at the RLs, an ideal zone where a higher low (HL) could confirm a continuation pattern.
Scient pointed out that it is the body of the candle that is important divergencethe fuses don’t count. He pays close attention to the development of hidden bullish divergences in the 3D timeframe, which would confirm the bullish setup. According to the analyst, this week looks relatively slow, but the next will be volatile movement probably coming next week.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com