Journalist
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Bitcoin is lagging behind technology stocks and the broader US stock market. Although the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq: IXIC) fell 1.7% after the Fed’s post-dovish interest rate cut, Bitcoin fell even harder, by 2.4%.
In fact, the crypto asset hasn’t lived up to its narrative of being a “higher beta tech stock” in the second half of 2025.
While technology stocks, as tracked by the Nasdaq Composite, posted a 17% gain, Bitcoin gained [BTC] lost about 15% over the past six months. In other words: it is better to invest in Nasdaq than in BTC this year.
Source: BTC vs Technology Stocks (TradingView)
Last week, BTC delinked from the Nasdaq as its price fell from $94,000 to below $90,000, further reinforcing the crypto’s underperformance ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision.
What’s next for BTC?
On the macro front, we have US inflation data (CPI) scheduled for Thursday (18th), followed by the BOJ interest rate decision on Friday (December 19).
While the latter is the most followed and to some extent encourages current short-term caution, Glassnode’s founders downplayed its impact. The duo said,
“The BOJ rate hike is the most crowded trade today. A 25 basis point rate hike is already priced in. The only negative outcome is an aggressive outlook.”
For perspective, previous BoJ rate hikes have led to a 20%-30% decline in the BTC price, and a repeat of this could push BTC lower.
The founders of Glassnode added that BTC was still in a ‘bottom phase’ and that the $85.5-$87k area could be visited this week.
“There is a large liquidation cluster at $85.5-87k in the coming days. Given the loaded macro data ahead of us in the coming week, this is likely an area to revisit as volatility increases.”
Will the $83,000 support hold?
From an on-chain perspective, the $83k price point also doubled as the average cost basis for US spot BTC ETFs. Defending the $83,000 support could pave the way for a recovery, one analyst noted.
Source: Glassnode
Despite BTC being a laggard, Glassnode founders noted that it could go higher if “small cap stocks keep their current range within their current range.”
Still, Laser Digital’s Dubai-based Derivatives Trading Desk told AMBCrypto that 2026 will be constructive for crypto.
In an email statement, the company highlighted a “heavy wall” at $94k for BTC, but added:
“These (CPI and labor data) should clear the runway for participants to begin rebuilding their long exposure out to 2026. The combination of a new Fed chair and upcoming liquidity regulations will likely create a more constructive backdrop for risky assets.”
Final thoughts
- Despite near-term caution ahead of this week’s macro updates, analysts remained optimistic.
- Glassnode founders predicted that BTC could fall to $85k-$87k on liquidity chase before rising further.