Bitcoin price is bouncing back strongly amid growing hopes of a possible shift in the US-Iran standoff. So far, BTC has gained about 10% in the weekly time frame. This pushed assets back into the $76,000 area and briefly marked an almost one-month high.
This move appears to have been prompted by improved sentiment around the conflict, even as tensions remain very real and the US simultaneously took action in the region.
Clarity on regulations before greater pressure?
The Bitcoin price rally followed claims by President Donald Trump that Iran had contacted his government about the potential situation peace talks. At the same time, the US began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Damien Loh, head of investments at Ericsenz Capital, told Bloomberg that Bitcoin behaves like other risky assets during the move. He said the market interpreted Trump’s comments as a sign that the timeline for a deal may be extended and a new round of discussions will continue.
Loh also added an important nuance: Bitcoin price was trading better than broader risk assets, but he suggested more regulatory clarity might be needed before the next step can really take off.
In particular, he pointed out the possibility that the Bitcoin price could remain within a certain range until the US crosses the long-awaited mark CLARITY Actthe market structure framework of the sector.
Bitcoin price breakout is just beginning
Market analyst Ali Martinez argued, based on data from his latest analysis, that the current surge is not yet over. Martinez said BTC has finally broken above a descending trendline on the 12-hour chart, after about two months of consolidation within a symmetrical triangle.
He described this as a structural change, essentially signaling that the coiling phase is over. If the breakout holds, Martinez expects the Bitcoin price could rise towards $80,000, which would be the highest since January 31 this year.
Martinez also pointed out that the bullish momentum is happening for more reasons than just the Iran-US news. He said Bitcoin miners have halted forced selling and have hoarded more than $330 million worth of BTC in recent weeks.
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On the demand side, the analyst said there has been a noticeable increase in interest from US-based institutions. He pointed to the Coinbase Premium metric as a piece of evidence, noting that it has turned positive.
In its frame a positive one Coinbase Premium suggests that regulated capital could be positioning itself aggressively ahead of what could be the next upward move.
Even after the Bitcoin price initially rose towards $76,000, it later reversed somewhat. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price was trading around $75,163, still close to a key level that Martinez has highlighted.
He set a target of $75,300, explaining that reaching this price would liquidate approximately $80 million in short positions. Martinez said this could lead to what he described as a “cascade effect,” where forced buying in liquidations catches bearish traders off guard and allows BTC to continue rising higher.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com