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In a series of exchanges on “If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happens, get ready for 7-digit bitcoin. This cycle. The market is currently skeptical about a meaningful follow-up process, so that is not priced in at all,” says Back.
if the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve happens, get ready for 7-digit bitcoin. this cycle. The market is currently skeptical about a meaningful follow-up process, so that is not priced in at all.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) November 18, 2024
The bold prediction sparked debate among industry experts and enthusiasts. James Van Straten, a well-known crypto analyst, replied: “7 figures? I don’t think I’m mentally prepared for 6.” Acknowledging the market’s doubts, Back responded: “That’s a pretty big if, though. At least from the market price, the market thinks that a US strategic Bitcoin reserve is unlikely. If that becomes reality, I expect a rapid repricing.”
Can Bitcoin Rise to $1 Million Per Coin?
The conversation highlights the market’s skepticism about the feasibility of the US government building such a significant Bitcoin reserve. Van Straten, like other experts, suggested that a country might consider “getting ahead of the curve” on this potential scenario, to which Back noted, “There’s no other good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly.” Even then, once it leaks, the whole world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”
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Portal, a guard-free interoperability protocol for Bitcoin, weighed in on the discussion via X: “If the US starts one, the rest of the world will surely follow suit.” This sentiment underlines the potential global ripple effect of a US-initiated SBR on Bitcoin adoption and appreciation.
Skepticism was also expressed by X user AndyLiteMan (@LiteAndy), who criticized Back’s astronomical prediction: “As exciting as that would be, it’s not going to happen. We hear this every cycle.” Back maintained his stance, emphasizing the conditional nature of his forecast: “I said ‘if,’ and the market doesn’t believe it so far.”
Adding another layer to the unfolding story, Dennis Porter, CEO and founder of the Satoshi Act Fund – a US non-profit that advocates for Bitcoin adoption – claimed on November 18 that Donald Trump’s team is considering an executive order to establish a national SBR, such as Bitcoinist reported. “I have heard that the Trump team is considering an executive order for a national ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ to prevent any state from passing it into law first,” Porter revealed via X. “I can confirm that the offices of the US Senate supports this plan. Game about President Trump. The race has begun.”
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Porter, deeply involved in legislative efforts surrounding Bitcoin adoption, noted that his information comes from “private conversations with people familiar” with the issue and his direct involvement in promoting SBR language in the United States and internationally.
In particular, it is crucial to distinguish between the proposals under discussion. Porter’s reference to Trump’s consideration is in reference to an executive order that would establish a national SBR. This contrasts with Trump’s earlier suggestion at the Bitcoin 2024 conference to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve by holding all “seized coins” obtained through law enforcement actions.
Additionally, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, which proposes that the US government purchase 1 million BTC over five years, allocating 200,000 BTC per year. Back responded to this legislative initiative, commenting on a screenshot from the Polymarket prediction market, which shows a 36% chance: “Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve?” He clarified: “Optimistic IMO and depends on what they mean. ‘Not selling seized coins’ is very different from Senator Lummis’ SBR bill to buy 1 million BTC.”
The latter could send the Bitcoin price skyrocketing. Back highlighted the logistical challenges of such a substantial acquisition: “There is no other good way to buy 1 million BTC other than very, very quietly. Even then, once it leaks, the whole world gets FOMO and a price teleport happens.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $92,329.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com