Cardano (ADA) price is about to break 2025 support. The large-cap altcoin has weakened its support range of $0.57 to $0.51 each time it retested year-to-date (YTD).
This support range was broken during the October 11, 2025 crypto crash. Since then, ADA price has continued to weaken on a weekly basis. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, ADA price needs to hold its last line of defense around $0.51 to validate a recovery to $0.7.
Source: X
Two reasons why the Cardano price will soon fall below $0.5
Low crypto liquidity amid heightened fears of further capitulation
According to on-chain data analysis from Santiment, whale investors and retailers have sold aggressively in the recent past. As such, fears of further crypto capitulation have remained high, as evidenced CoinMarketCaps Fear and Greed Index, which at the time of writing was hovering around 31/100.
The reopening of the US government after a 40-day shutdown is a huge relief for the markets. However, overall liquidity has not yet reached the crypto market as investors continue to bet on stocks that focus on artificial intelligence (AI).
Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s long-awaited quantitative easing (QE) next month, amid rising global reserves, will be bullish for the broader crypto market, including ADA.
Fractal Pattern Repeat: The current bull market is similar to the 2020/2021 cycle
From a technical analysis perspective, ADA price follows a similar fractal pattern to the 2020/2021 bull cycle.
In the weekly time frame, it is clear that ADA’s parabolic rally into the price discovery phase began after retesting the multi-year support/resistance level established through the bear markets.
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