Key Takeaways
What recent actions has the whale taken?
He moved 3,003 BTC to Binance, increased his short on BTC to $234 million via Hyperliquid, and has opened a leveraged short at $111,000 with 10x exposure.
Why are traders looking at his activities?
His trades indicate a possible market correction, with some expecting Bitcoin could retest $100,000 or lower.
Bitcoin [BTC] has bounced back to $108,300, up 0.49% in the past 24 hours, showing a solid recovery since the October 10 crash.
However, not all market participants are convinced the rally has legs.
Bitcoin OG intensifies bearish bet
A well-known Bitcoin OG, who shorted BTC $200 million during the Trump-China rate crash, has doubled down on his bearish stance.
Known in crypto circles as the ‘Trump insider’, this whale has increased his short position to 2,100 BTC, worth approximately $227 million. This is happening as traders debate whether the recent recovery has already peaked.
Source: Arkham
Moreover, on October 21, the investor also placed a new $234 million short position on BTC through the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. [HYPE]with a liquidation price set at $123,000, according to reports from Arkham.
This means that if the price of Bitcoin rises above that level, the position could experience a margin call and be forcibly closed.
Building the short stack
The transaction followed an earlier deposit of 200 BTC (approximately $22 million) that was used to expand the existing short position a day earlier.
Earlier this week, he bet another $30 million in Tether [USDC] to Hyperliquid to open a $76 million short, increasing its exposure as Bitcoin briefly tried to recover from last week’s sharp decline.
At one point, his combined BTC short exposure reached approximately 3,440 BTC (approximately $392 million), demonstrating the extent of his influence on the derivatives markets.
The timing of these trades has sparked debate among crypto traders, with many speculating that the whale is expecting another correction, possibly expecting Bitcoin to test $100,000 or lower again.
The market weighs the signal
Now, in the midst of one neutral crypto sentiment with fear and greed at 50 and Bitcoin dominance float around 60%, the market shows a cautious tilt towards BTC versus altcoins.
Recent activity in derivatives and increased institutional involvement, especially in products like BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, indicate a maturing ecosystem. This development may lead to a reduction in extreme volatility.
However, the established post-halving patterns of Bitcoin and the behavior of long-term holders indicate that price movements are currently mild.
Nevertheless, the potential for significant market movements remains, keeping traders and investors on their toes.