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Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other form of advice and is solely the opinion of the writer
- At the time of writing, TON was up +70% while BTC was down -12% in Q3 price performance
- The short- and long-term trends were bullish according to the Futures market data at the time of writing
Tonmint [TON] surpassed Bitcoin [BTC] on quarterly and weekly fronts. According to TradingView, BTC rose 2.65% last week (September 11-17), while TON rose 34.9%.
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On a quarter-over-quarter basis, TON rose +70% in Q3 2023, based on press time value of $2.35. However, BTC fell 12% during the same period.
It translates into a +100% recovery if price performance is extrapolated to the recent high of $2.55 from the July low of $1.15. The double value pushed TON into the top 10 club based on market capitalization.
What’s next before the Fed’s decision?
Source: TON/USDT on TradingView
Additional market volatility is likely in the coming hours as the FOMC Meeting gets underway on September 19 and 20. A likely dovish stance could push TON to launch an additional rally, and the next crucial target is $2.9 (December 2022 high).
At the time of writing, the price action had reclaimed the $2.22 level, a key support in the third quarter of 2023. If bulls defend this and the Fed’s decision is favorable, the rally could extend to the December highs . Furthermore, the $2.5 and $2.65 levels are major hurdles that need to be cleared to reach the $2.9 target.
Conversely, a decline below $2.22 will confirm that the market structure is weakening in the fourth half. However, the breakout level and previous weekly bearish order block (OB) range of $1.8 – $2.07 could facilitate the extended retracement.
Meanwhile, the RSI retreated slightly from the overbought zone but did not expand at the time of writing. It signals a potential turnaround, but a favorable decision from the Fed could bring more buying pressure.
The CMF was also positive on the chart despite hovering above zero in recent days. This indicated that capital inflows were positive but fluctuating.
The futures market data was bullish, but…
Source: Coinglass
According to Coinglass’ Long/Short ratio, there have been more than 50% long positions on the daily charts since September 13. It meant more players went long on this asset – a bullish bias.
How many Worth 1,10,100 TON today?
The positive Open Interest (OI) rates and the Accumulative Swing Index (ASI) further confirmed the bullish sentiment in the futures market.
The OI increased from <$10 miljoen op 10 september en was op het moment van schrijven >Up $21 million, indicating an increase in demand.
Source: Coinalyse
Similarly, the ASI, which tracks the strength of price movements, was positive at 6.77. This highlighted that the long-term price trend was bullish and in a solid uptrend at the time of writing.
So further additional gains could be likely in the short term. Still, fluctuating financing rates can pose a problem.
