Bitcoin’s recent rebound may seem like a sign of renewed strength, but the price action tells a more deceptive story. With downside liquidity still scarce and support remaining firm, the market appears primed for a move that attracts eager bulls rather than rewarding them. This rally could be less recovery and more about preparing for maximum pain when sentiment turns.
Aligning Bitcoin’s medium- and long-term prospects
During an in-depth technical and psychological analysisMr. Wall Street explained that his broader view on Bitcoin had already been clarified a week earlier, after some confusion surrounding his medium- and long-term stance. With that time horizon clearly defined, he turned his attention to the short-term picture, outlining current market behavior.
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He reiterated that while his preference for Bitcoin remains bearish in the medium term, the short term is bearish structure has turned bullish. The reason for this was that there was not enough downside liquidity to justify market makers starting the next big move lower. This imbalance supported the arguments for a temporary upward movement.
Thus, Mr. Wall Street placed long positions around the Value Area Low between $80,000 and $84,000, on a rebound that could later turn into a bull trap. Shortly afterwards, Bitcoin fell and successfully retested the $84,000 level, which corresponds to the weekly MA100, after several deceptive upward moves.
As a result, his long orders were executed as planned, leaving him with a position of $84,550. The analyst noted that he only plans to exit the market in the $98,000-$104,000 zone, where a Fair Value Gap meets high liquidity, making it an ideal area to make profits.
Being in longs doesn’t change the macro-bearish thesis
Mr. Wall Street clarified that holding long positions does not mean a bullish shift on Bitcoin. The broader perspective remains bearishwith expectations for the next major downside move towards the $64,000-$70,000 region. In the short term, Bitcoin has strong support while downside liquidity is limited, reducing the likelihood of an immediate continuation.
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A more logical scenario involves market makers devising a bullish move to attract retail participation. As late buyers take long positions, they gradually become exit liquidity, paving the way for a larger move downward once enough liquidity has built up.
He also said the $68,000-$74,000 zone was too widely expected to function as a true “maximum pain” area capable of resetting market structure. For that reason the disadvantage The target was revised down to a range of $64,000-$70,000, with the expectation that this zone could be reached in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2026. This level represents an initial major goal rather than the ultimate low point.
Recent price action was highlighted as a clear example of this dynamic. Bitcoin’s rapid move from $87,000 to $90,000, followed by a sharp drop to $85,000 within hours, resulted in widespread liquidations. Many traders looked for the upside and quickly found themselves trapped, and fake moves in either direction are likely to continue as liquidity builds ahead of a bigger move downside.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com