Bitcoin’s behavior around US Federal Reserve announcements has become one of the most consistent market patterns of the year. Following each FOMC update, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has responded with a noticeable downward move, underscoring how closely the asset is now tied to shifting interest rate expectations and broader macro sentiment.
What Future FOMC Meetings Could Mean for Bitcoin
In an X afterAnalyst CryptoMichNL has said that the Federal Reserve (FED) is preparing to update the printer from 2021 liquidity settings to a more supportive stance for 2025. However, this does not mean that this will have an immediate impact on the markets as these things take time. As a result of the update, Bitcoin has fallen after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in 2025, but these moves are mainly aimed at flushing out longs through high liquidations.
According to the expert, the actual movement in the markets and its direction should take place in the next 1-2 weeks, which would provide a better outlook for 2026. The bullish trend has remained intact and the statement is still valid. However, BTC may not break the lows during the FOMC flush. Instead, it should break the USD 92,000 resistance zone to retest the USD 100,000 level.
Bitcoin is still moving in a choppy pattern, driven by illiquid order books and rapid moves in both directions. CryptoMichNL has that too marked that BTC is still headed for another upside breakout in the coming days to weeks. Despite the volatility, BTC has continued to make higher lows, which is a clear sign that an upside structure is emerging.
CryptoMichNL noted that since the price is no longer collapsing, the heavy correction in the market was highly manipulated and not organic, which is very natural for the market to return to normal.
Why the Bitcoin Market Structure Remains Intact Despite a Deep Pullback
Bitcoin has not been proven to be different from the cycle. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the good initial bounce is right outside the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382, which is taken from the entire cycle move. Realistically, that was the lowest the price could reach without breaking the broader weekly market structure.
According to Daan, the invalidation is clearly the prospect of a higher time frame, and would make the November lows a very uncomfortable place for the bulls. As the year comes to a close, much of the four-year cycle sales should also decline. Meanwhile, the first quarter of 2026 is starting to become extremely important as it will likely reveal where the BTC cycle will move next.