This is the best time to buy Bitcoin, says investment giant

In his latest investor memo, entitled ‘The Great Derisking of Bitcoin’, Bitwise Asset Management has adopted a daring attitude in the future of the world’s original cryptocurrency. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has provided a detailed analysis in a shipment of 25 March 2025, which says: “Now is the best time in history to buy Bitcoin (on a risk-corrected basis).” The memoIncluding reflections on the early days of Bitcoin and an assessment of the biggest milestones, offers insight into why Bitwise believes that the risk profile of the leading digital asset has been dramatically shifted in recent years.

Best time to buy Bitcoin

In his opening comments, Hougan tells Bitcoin in February 2011, when he worked as part of a financial analysis team on ETF.com. During a routine market review meeting, one of the young analysts of Hougan showed the fact that Bitcoin had crossed $ 1 – a milestone event that has activated a discussion about the underlying technology and potential use cases. “If I had invested $ 1,000 in Bitcoin after that meeting, it would be worth $ 88 million today,” Hougan complains afterwards.

However, this anecdote is not just a story about missed opportunity. Hougan emphasizes the risks that were omnipresent at the time, and emphasized how the idea of ​​transferring $ 1,000 to a “random PayPal address” via an emerging crypto exchange was a nerve-racking and largely non-tested proposition. Moreover, custody, the clarity of the regulations and the supervision of the government were virtually non -existent, so that every exposure to cryptocurrency was effectively converted into a risky gamble with a high risk. “Throw in custody, regulatory, technological and government risks … and placing $ 1,000 on Bitcoin in 2011 was a huge gamble,” he explains.

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Central to Hougan’s dissertation it says that over the years, Bitcoin has methodically overcome almost any existential threat that once rose. He notes that early attempts to create digital money – such as the 1997 article of the National Security Agency entitled “How to make a mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash” – did not start completely, which meant it was far from guaranteed that Bitcoin himself would succeed.

From there, improvements in trading locations and storage solutions gradually reduced the entry thresholds. When Coinbase was launched at the end of 2011, it marked a crucial moment by offering a more user-friendly and reliable driveway for both retail and institutional investors. Large preservators, including Fidelity, would later expand their operational and brand strength to crypto, so that the concerns about security and storage are further mitigated.

At the same time, the once pervasive fears for regulating Klemdowns began to take. In 2024, the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-exchange funds (ETFs) in the US removed a large roadblock. Hougan notes that broader acceptance on traditional financial markets made it easier for institutions to justify the addition of digital assets to their portfolios without worrying about opaque regulations or insufficient market monitoring.

“When Bitcoin was first launched, there was no guarantee that it would even work. […] The incredible thing about Bitcoin is that it slowly but surely has crashed each of these existential risks over time, ”writes Hougan, where he underlines his opinion that the evolutionary path of Bitcoin has been one of the measured resilience.

Bitcoin Last threat is removed

One important question, however, remained the rise of Bitcoin shadows: what if a major government decides to prohibit or seriously limit the cryptocurrency? Hougan points to a historic parallel: the golden confiscation order of the US government in 1933, performed under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The measure was aimed at consolidating gold possession to strengthen the government’s reserves, thereby fueling a common fear under Bitcoin investors that a similar ban could suppress the growth of the cryptocurrency or make it completely illegal.

“In 1933 the US seized famous private golden interests to stimulate the public treasury. Why would Bitcoin enable it to become big enough to threaten the US dollar?” Hougan recognizes.

This worst-case scenario, he adds, was often tempered by reminding people that if Bitcoin would be considerably enough to match the dollar: “You will probably have done pretty well with your investment.” Yet the uncertainty remained – until Hougan took place in mind as a decisive event earlier this month.

The executive command of President Trump that draws up an American strategic Bitcoin reserve, which was signed at the beginning of March, seems to have tackled that persistent concern, Hougan says. By making a direct investment in Bitcoin, the US government has effectively destroyed the prospect of an outright prohibition, instead switching to a policy of strategic coordination. “And just like that, the last existential risk that Bitcoin was confronted with before my eyes,” Hougan notes.

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Critics have wondered why the US would endorse, which could be conceived as a competitor of the dollar status as the global reserve currency. Hougan quotes Cliff Astess, founder of AQR Capital and points to the immediate question: “(I) F Crypto is a viable long -term competitor of the US dollar, why on peace name we promote this direct competitor until us are world reserves?”

In the assessment of Hougan, the American government positions Bitcoin as a hedge rather than to renounce monetary dominance. If the primacy of the dollar is threatened, Bitcoin presents a more controllable or, at least, more transparent alternative than a strange currency such as the Chinese Yuan. “The best scenario for the US is that the dollar remains the reserve currency of the world. But if we are about to danger, we are better off to Bitcoin than something like the Chinese Yuan,” he adds.

Institutional allocations shift

On the institutional front, Bitwise has already observed a noticeable shift in how investors assign to Crypto. As recently as two years ago, holding 1% in Bitcoin or other digital assets was considered relatively aggressive for a diversified portfolio. This allocation was intended to conquer speculative profit and at the same time limit the exposure to what was still felt like an emerging, unpredictable market.

Nowadays, however, with a new level of legitimacy and more regulated routes to invest by the government, the company can see more customers of 3%accept. Hougan notes that this trend reflects an in -depth change in perception: Bitcoin is no longer just a gamble; It is a credible alternative possession. “As more of the world wakes up with the enormous deriskering that we have seen in Bitcoin, I think you will see this number rising to 5% and then,” he predicts.

At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 87,865.

Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com