This Bitcoin cycle changes everything, warns real vision -analyst

Real Vision Analyst Jamie Coutts states that the current Bitcoin market is less powered by the four-year issue of the active and much more by a broader of global liquidity that is only now starting to roll. In a broad interview with ‘Crypto Kid’, Coutts laid a cycle framework in policy, bank credit and balance dynamics, while warning those classical momentum warnings and a cooling of the purchasing of business treasure sorcons.

Why this Bitcoin cycle is different

“From a first principle base, global liquidity … drives risk provisions,” said Coutts, adding that when he reigns Bitcoin against his preferred lives-composite of central banking balance, global money quantity, FX reserves and elements of commercial/shadow banking “you think that is there.” The danger, he warned, fits with a moving relationship. “Markets are non-stationary … The correlation itself is a moving target, so I would not be too connected in graphs where you refine the delay. That LAG period will always change.” Yet he called the relationship between liquidity and risks ‘virtually everything I have ever seen’.

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The interview has been opened in recent months at a point of discussion: short -term differences between rising global liquidity meters and the price of Bitcoin since US Spot ETFs launched. Coutts pushed back on the idea that the link was ‘broken’, with the argument that the current gap of Bitcoin is the volatility of Bitcoin format. “Within the volatility range of the active, [there’s] Nothing to worry about, “he said, noticed that his own dollar-sensitive proxy has been a little longer flatulining ‘than some popular versions. The right question, he emphasized, is not a delay, but asks whether the liquidity increases on a multi-quarter display and why.

Those macro lens leads directly to policy. Coutts expects a threatening bent in the attitude of the Western central bank, with the rates that have probably been lower and at least tapering the balance of balance balance. “I think it is very likely that we will see interest rate in the September meeting in September,” he said.

“The question is that the Fed also announces the end of QT or tapering from QT?” Behind the hinge is, according to him, “tax dominance”: the large deficits of the US government and refinancing needs that force compelling monetary authorities to guarantee a smooth absorption of the treasury supply. “You can forget what they tell you about stable prices and unemployment. They are there to keep the financial system … and now they are very tied to the hip of the US government.”

It is crucial that Coutts viewers reminded that most money creation does not come from central banks, but from commercial banks that expand credit. “They are responsible for around 85% to 90% of all new money supply,” he said. In practice, the liquidity can be “supercharged” when central banks also expand their own balance sheets or change the regulations to encourage banks to collect more treasure chests. He also formed Washington’s friendlier attitude towards Crypto and Stablecoins through this prism and called Dollar Stablecoins a potential new distribution mail for American debts. The result is a structural background that, according to him, advocates higher liquidity over time, even if the path is noisy in the short term.

The business cycle

On top of the policy, Coutts has laminated the business cycle. He argued that the US goes back in expansion – with recent measurements above 50 that are cited during the discussion – and that the “Goldilocks” setup comes to the fore when a growth in growth overlaps with a turn higher in liquidity. This, he suggested, is the deeper driver behind the well-known four-year-old Bitcoin rhythm: “Do we really look at a liquidity cycle that is dressed as a Bitcoin-Halvering cycle?” As the issue decreases compared to successive halvifications, he said, the supply-shock effect becomes ‘less important’, while liquidity and growing conditions dominate allocations to ‘assets anti-debasation’. In that race he added: “Bitcoin is the emerging anti-debasement of the present and the future”, with Ethereum next to it on the performance with a longer horizon.

China plays prominently on the map of Coutts. He emphasized the rising balance of the People Bank of China in the midst of a debt deflation and the urge of the government to breathe new life into the government. “They are really the only central bank that goes up,” he said, who links that liquidity to improving Chinese shares and increasing gold in Yuan conditions. In earlier cycles, he noticed, late stage Bitcoin strength drawn up with Chinese equity peaks, and he currently sees an “inverse double head-and-shoulders” pattern that points to an important benchmark from China shares. Two cycles are not “statistically important,” he admitted, but the mechanism is simple: “What drives Chinese shares, what drives Bitcoin? The same – it’s liquidity.”

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If the structural message is supportive, the tape still requires humility. Coutts called a weekly Time Frame Bearish divergence in the momentum of Bitcoin as a real risk signal. “Divergencies are warning signals … The trend loses momentum,” he said, who reminded similar arrangements prior to the 2008 crisis and the Pandemic shock of 2020. Such signals are probabilistic, not the fate, but he insisted on investing “compensatory circumstances” and risk management.

Why this Bitcoin cycle is different! (Explained by @Jamie1coutts))

Timeline:
00:00 Intro
01:05 Worldwide liquidity and m2 -money supply
07:19 Fed’s balance
14:45 Liquidity cycles or HalveringsCycli
19:04 Chinese shares and bitcoin
23:25 The Bearish Divergencies
35: 08 … pic.twitter.com/viua5bftyu

– Crypto Kid (@Cryptokidcom) September 6, 2025

Bitcoin -Momentum fades (for now)

Related to the Momentum, he marked a cooling in the marginal demand motor that has driven much from 2024: accumulation of companies of Bitcoin trade, led by micro strategy and followed by a long tail of imitators. “The marginal buyer of Bitcoin has been treasury companies and ETFs,” he said, but the “intensity of buying” by Treasury vehicles “peaked in Q4 of 2024.” While premiums compress the windows and make capital markets narrow, “they can no longer buy with the same intensity”, which acts as a resistance to the margin.

The host noted that the market-to-NAV premium from MicroStrategy had recently been around 1.5%, and added that Michael Saylor suggested that the issue is much more attractive above about 2.0; The wider point of Coutts was that a proliferation of copycats thinned the strategy and had much smaller names act under the intrinsic value – potentially acquisition powder for stronger operators as discounts. ETFs, he said, are a more stable bid, but miss the leverage reflexivity of issues.

In ‘Altese season’ was Coutts Bot who will not rhyme this time with the helicopter-money mania of 2021. He argued that crypto has now found the product market fit, with higher quality networks with users, cash flows and token burning mechanics that make sense to traditional allocators, while arbitrary speculation.

“The new buyers are much more distinctive. They are not going to buy the 15th or 16th L1, the 10th L2,” he said, who predict concentration in a handful of credible platforms and real-world use cases. He hopes that the industry will never say ‘the word’ Altese season ‘, prefer to describe what is happening as a wider’ bull market for activa class’ with much larger dispersion. The earlier ‘banana zone’, he added, was a being of lockdowns and stimulus controls; The “speed of stimulus is now different”, so the expectations must also be.

At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 112,946.

Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com