Bitcoin has now spent four consecutive months below the $100,000 mark for the first time since the milestone was crossed in 2024. This move marked a return to the bear market, and the trend has continued ever since. Even now, sellers are most likely still dominating the market, despite the market recovery. One crypto analyst is noticing an interesting trend regarding Bitcoin, suggesting that participation from smaller investors may be dying out.
Retail investors are gone and Bitcoin could be in trouble
Bitcoin’s recent downtrend has suggested that liquidity in the crypto market is drying up, and this is reflected by the data showing a decline in retail transaction participation. In a graph shared by crypto analyst Crypto Tice revealed that retail investment has plummeted since the Bitcoin price hit its all-time high.
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The analyst emphasizes that trades under $10,000 specifically account for most of the decline. This means that retail investors, or smaller investors that are not institutions, are no longer putting money into digital assets to the extent they did before.
This trend, the analyst explains, is demand destruction and is often a precursor to major Bitcoin bear markets in history. The trend has always been similar: first retail leaves and then volume starts to drop, and these are bear market signals.
If the analyst is right, it means Bitcoin’s decline is far from over. As the crypto analyst explained, the data right now “screams” that a bear market is coming. Crypto Tice warns that this is the time to be cautious and not the time for ‘blind optimism’.
When will the bull market return?
Bull markets are often driven by an influx of liquidity leading to a buying spree, and this is no different. Naturally, private investors play a major role in this, meaning their absence from the market often spells doom. As the analyst explains, the Bitcoin price recovery will likely be limited until these retail investors return, meaning upside potential is limited in the meantime.
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According to the shared chart, retail investment will need to rise above 10% again to activate a new sustained run. This past year, the high was 30% in early 2025, which foreshadowed Bitcoin price hitting multiple all-time highs. So a return to this level could trigger the next big run and potentially raise $100,000.
Featured image of Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com