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A recent Quicktake analysis of the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant emphasizes how Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders (STH) The behavior is similar to that of 2019. This analysis comes as Bitcoin remains below $60,000, continuing the bearish September trend.
Spike in Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Similar to 2019 Structure
CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain noted that there had been a ‘small spike’ in unspent transaction outputs (UXTOs) within six months, which resembles a similar structure seen in 2019. The analyst explained that within six months, these UXTOs are new investors (or short-term holders) who entered the market around March this year, when the price of Bitcoin reached a point new all-time record (ATH).
According to the analyst, the declining share of these UXTOs suggests that these investors have either exited the market due to Bitcoin’s choppy price action since March, or have held on and have now switched to long term holders (UTXOs six months and older).
The accompanying chart showed a similar structure occurring around the halving in 2019, when Bitcoin also reached a local high. Then, Bitcoin’s price cooled down and took almost 490 days to reach a new ATH, although Avocado_onchain noted that there was also the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This development undoubtedly offers insight into what Bitcoin investors can expect from the flagship crypto in the long term, even as the price remains choppy. Avocado_onchain noted that he has confidence in Bitcoin long term upward trend. In the short term, however, he believes it is wise for investors to “temper expectations and keep a close eye on the market.”
While the analyst admitted that there is no clear trigger for a Bitcoin breakout, he meanwhile noted that the influx of capital from new investors has historically been critical to Bitcoin’s price increases. Bitcoin reached a new ATH in March after the launch of the Discover Bitcoin ETFswho introduced new money into the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Bitcoin appears to be continuing the bearish September trend
Bitcoin seems to continue its development bearish September trend this year, with the flagship crypto already down more than 4% since the start of the month. Historically September is known as a bearish month, such as facts from Coinglass shows that Bitcoin has posted monthly losses in six of the past seven Septembers, dating back to 2017.
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Following his simulation of Bitcoin’s price for this month, says CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Morenomentioned that the flagship crypto could end the month at $55,000 on average. Moreno had mentioned earlier that a drop below $56,000 for Bitcoin carries the risk of a deeper price correction and a prolonged bearish phase.
For now, the crypto community is hoping that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next FOMC meeting, scheduled for September 17 and 18. believed to be one that could trigger Bitcoin’s price and lead to a successful breakout above $60,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $56,400, down more than 4% in the past 24 hours. facts from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
