The recent drop in Bitcoin’s value below the $60,000 mark has led to widespread speculation within the crypto community, raising questions among investors and market observers about the future direction of its price. Marco Johanning, a well-known crypto analyst and founder of The Summit Club, took to X (formerly Twitter) to provide his insights about current market conditions and what can be expected next.
According to Johanning, the recent price action does not represent a market decline, but rather a correction within an ongoing bull market. He emphasizes: “Bitcoin lost its reach. What now? First and foremost, a reminder: we are in a bull market and this is a correction. This is not a rally in a bear market. In other words, the high timeframe trend is upward regardless.”
He supported this claim with several indicators of an ongoing bullish trend. First, Bitcoin bottomed out in the bear market in November 2022 and subsequently broke above the 200-day moving average, a critical indicator of long-term market trends. After dropping below the 200-day moving average, there was a significant breakout above this level in October 2023 and THE major resistance in the high time frame.
Moreover, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in March 2024. Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin has consistently recorded higher highs and higher lows, which are typical characteristics of a bullish market.
“This cannot be a bear market,” Johanning explained. “These elements underscore a fundamental bias that is key to assuming that the current decline is part of a broader bull market trend. Therefore, Bitcoin will eventually find a local bottom and rise higher.”
Bitcoin Price Analysis: What to Expect Now?
Johanning provided a detailed overview of possible future scenarios based on technical analysis. His first scenario is based on the monthly chart, where the most crucial level is $48,000-$49,000. This level is critical because it was a major hurdle to overcome in February 2024. Now it could serve as the perfect point for a bullish retest.
Furthermore, there is significant market imbalance all the way up to the $48,000-$49,000 range, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the last monthly swing low. This setup, according to Johanning, suggests strong potential for price stabilization and reversal at this level.
The second scenario is based on the weekly chart, where the important level is $52,000. This level acts as a key support/resistance on the high time frame, characterized by a weekly imbalance that could reach $52,000, and corresponds to the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382 from the bottom to the top of the last major rally, and the level of 0.618 from the latter. swing low to the top.
The third scenario is based on the lower time frames. Here the key level is at $57,000. This figure is critical as it represents the Fibonacci level of 0.5 from the last swing low and was a key area during the February climb. This level can serve as a stage for a possible deviation or price drop.
“The recent bearish engulfing pattern breaking monthly levels followed by a bearish retest indicates significant market shifts,” Johanning said. “If Bitcoin quickly reclaims these key levels, especially the $57,000 mark, we could see a divergence scenario unfold. Otherwise, the $52,000 or $48,000-$49,000 levels are likely to be tested, each representing a higher low in the ongoing uptrend.”
Impact on altcoins and market strategy
Altcoins have shown remarkable resilience in the face of Bitcoin’s volatility, which Johanning finds particularly promising. “Usually, a significant drop in Bitcoin, accompanied by a loss of a larger timeframe, would lead to severe declines in altcoins. However, their strength yesterday is a good indication that the worst is over for altcoins,” he said.
Johanning concluded his analysis with an optimistic outlook for both Bitcoin and altcoins, expressing his confidence in the continuation of the bull market. He is actively accumulating at current prices and expecting substantial returns: “Regardless of which scenario plays out, I will stick with this trend until proven otherwise. I invest heavily, and if we really stay in a bull market, the profit potential is enormous.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $58,328.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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