The discussion about XRP’s long-term price prospects was sparked this week following comments from David Schwartz during a question and answer exchange with members from the XRP community on
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Interestingly, Schwartz’s view was not one of outright bullishness, but of the way markets actually value faith, probability and conviction with a blunt reality check.
Schwartz refuses to concede or deny a $100 XRP
When asked if Telling investors that XRP cannot realistically reach $50 or $100, Schwartz refused to budge from taking that position. Instead of, he started explaining why he felt uncomfortable making absolute statements about the future price of XRP. Based on personal experiences, he pointed out that he once found many lower milestones unrealistic, including XRP trading above $0.25 and Bitcoin reaching $100 as an impossible dream.
However, personal disbelief was not the problem. His claim is based on how rational markets behave when participants sincerely believe in a specific outcome.
According to Schwartz, if a significant number of rational investors actually believed there was even a modest chance of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, the market would already reflect that belief.
In such a scenario, investors would be unwilling to sell XRP at prices well below $10, and buyers with that belief would quickly absorb the available supply. At the time of writing, XRP is trading well under $10, and it is but to fix even $2 as a supporting floor. The fact that XRP continues to trade well below that level, he said, shows that very few market participants actually assign a serious probability to a $100 outcome.
According to Schwartz, the cryptocurrency markets are more rational than is often assumed. However, he also noted his personal belief that the major crypto bull runs were due to unpredictable external changes. This caveat still opens up the possibility that XRP could actually trade at $100 one day.
Comparing XRP and Bitcoin through a rational market lens
In a follow-up exchange, Schwartz said responded to a comparison between XRP reaching $100 and Bitcoin’s early journey to $1,000. The unlikelihood of XRP reaching $100 depends more on the asset’s multiple than anything else.
A tenfold rise in XRP, he said, is about as unlikely at this point as a tenfold rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum, regardless of whether that move has happened in the past or could happen in the future.
The idea that XRP would one day trade at $100 has been a popular idea among bullish XRP enthusiasts. However, a few critics have always downplayed the idea, citing the huge amount of influx this would require and saying that it best to aim for lower prices first 10 dollars.
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Schwartz’s comments do not declare that a $100 XRP is impossible, but follow the latter group’s reasoning. Instead, Ripple’s CTO emeritus challenges the logic behind confidently promoting such goals while the market itself shows little willingness to price in that outcome today, something that may not sit well with XRP enthusiasts.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView