After Bitcoin’s price surge to $64,000, crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicts a major breakthrough in the coming weeks. In a new video Analysis, the analyst predicts significant market movement around October 2024, based on historical precedents and current chart patterns.
Will October be bullish for Bitcoin again?
Looking at the weekly chart, Rekt Capital identifies a downtrend channel. Over the past four weeks, BTC has been diverging below this channel, looking for support that would allow a price increase above the channel’s bottom. This move has seen a “fantastic recovery,” indicating a potential for a return to the channel top around $67,000 in the coming weeks.
“The recovery of the channel bottom is crucial because historically the price has risen from the bottom of the channel to the top in an average of two weeks,” Rekt Capital explains. He emphasized the importance of weekly candle closes above specific levels, especially at $67,500 and eventually at $71,500, which would represent a break from the reaccumulation range set high after the halving.
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“The consistent pattern of bouncing from the bottom to the top of the channel typically lasts an average of two weeks, but in the current context we see a potentially extended consolidation phase at these lower levels,” Rekt Capital explains. This observation suggests that while the recovery path follows historical patterns, consolidation at lower prices could provide investors with buying opportunities.
Rekt Capital focused on the technical thresholds and emphasized the importance of several weekly candle closes above crucial price points. First, a close above $66,000 would reaffirm the lower bound of the reaccumulation margin as renewed support, paving the way for further upward movement. More importantly, a decisive weekly close above $67,500 would mark a break from the ongoing lower trend that has dominated since March this year.
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“The weekly close above these specific levels is not just a technical achievement, but a psychological victory for market participants, indicating a weakening of sell-side pressure and regained bullish momentum,” Rekt Capital said.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to initiate a major rally about 150 to 160 days after a halving. The analyst drew parallels to the post-halving periods of 2016 and 2020 and suggested that similar conditions are currently forming, with Bitcoin about 133 days from the last halving.
“This cyclical observation fits well with current market dynamics, where Bitcoin is methodically testing and in some cases breaking through key technical barriers,” he noted. This comparison is based not only on temporal patterns, but also on the qualitative nature of market behavior during these periods.
A key point of analysis was the 21-week EMA, a key indicator often considered the bull market barometer. Highlighting its historical significance, Rekt Capital noted: “Deviations below the 21-week EMA in bull markets typically provide lucrative buying opportunities, as seen in the 2021 cycle. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around this EMA and delivering mixed signals that require vigilant interpretation.”
Looking ahead, the analyst predicts that before Bitcoin enters a new parabolic phase that will lead to price discovery and potentially new all-time highs, it must first consolidate above the $71,500 level, which represents the highest level of reaccumulation. This level previously acted as formidable resistance, and a weekly close above it would likely catalyze a major bullish phase.
“In the coming weeks, the market’s ability to hold these critical supports and break through resistance levels with conviction will be crucial. This will determine the feasibility of a breakout that aligns with historical patterns observed post-halving,” Rekt Capital concluded, suggesting that October could be crucial for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $63,956.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
