Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss – and the numbers show this is becoming a pattern, not an anomaly.
Related reading
American buyers remain on the sidelines
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative in recent weeks, a sign that U.S. investors have largely withdrawn from the market.
According to CryptoQuant, the gap between BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance reflects a broader reluctance among US buyers to step back from current levels.
That hesitation shows up across multiple data points, from currency flows to the performance of investment products.
Global Bitcoin mutual funds posted net outflows of more than $190 million in the week ending March 27. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted significant institutional interest during their launch period, are now underwater for many of their holders.
Data shows the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors are sitting at $83,400 – well above where the price is trading today.
Bitcoin was changing hands around $66,820 when this report was made, about 47% below its all-time high of $126,000, which was set in October 2025. The price is also 24% below its annual opening of $87,600, after BTC closed 2025 in the red.
Nearly 9 million BTC held at a loss
According to on-chain, nearly 9 million Bitcoin – more than 40% of the total circulating supply – are currently in the hands of investors who paid more than the current price. facts from Glasnode. The combined unrealized loss on that offering is roughly $598 billion.
Glassnode drew a comparison to conditions last seen in the second quarter of 2022, one of Bitcoin’s most painful periods in recent history. At the time, approximately 3 million BTC had to change hands before the market regained its footing.
Based on reports from Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain newsletter, resolving a supply overhang of this magnitude has historically resulted in coins moving from sellers who were taking losses to new buyers willing to enter at lower prices.
Demand is not keeping pace for the time being. Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric recorded a value of -1,623 BTC on Thursday. That figure has remained negative since mid-December 2025. CryptoQuant described the situation as broad market distribution, driven by continued selling by private participants.
Related reading
Long-term holders are starting to crack
Perhaps the sharpest signal from the data concerns investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This group, usually seen as the most committed segment of the market, is now selling at a high rate at a loss.
Glassnode reported that realized losses among long-term holders rose to $200 million – a level the company described as confirmation of active capitulation.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView