Michael Saylor’s Strategy has made a huge and surprising Bitcoin purchase in the past 24 hours, despite the overhang from the MSCI index’s exclusion review scheduled for mid-January.
On December 8, the company announced that it had purchased 10,624 BTC, worth $962.7 million, at an average price of $90.6k.
While the update was expected, the sheer size of the nearly $1 billion BTC takeover, following Saylor’s signature “orange dots” bid signal over the weekend, came as a surprise.
In fact, December 6 is the prediction market projected only a 26% chance of another bid of 1000 BTC or more BTC by Strategy this week.
The latest purchase of 10.6k BTC is the second largest scoop of the second half of 2025 and brings the total supply to 660,624 BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant
For a company at risk of index exclusion after recently admitting it may sell BTC if the so-called mNAV falls below 1, this raises important questions.
Is the MSCI index overhang over? Are BTC’s sales plans rejected?
MSCI risk is increasing, but the selling opportunity for BTC is fading
Regarding the first question, the risk of being dropped from the index is still very high Polymarkt.
At the time of writing, the platform’s better players estimate a 73% chance of such an outcome in the first quarter of 2026, reinforcing underlying jitters despite the nearly $1 billion BTC purchase.
Source: Polymarkt
Last week, reports it emerged that Michael Saylor met with the MSCI team over the exclusion issue and tried to convince them not to expel his company from the club.
He has insisted that such an exclusion “will not make any difference.” On the contrary, JPMorgan analysts have warned of outflows of more than $8 billion if MSCI delists it.
In the case of a potential BTC dump if the mNAV falls below 1, such an outcome could be relatively low.
In the first quarter of 2026, the chance of such an outcome was even less than 10%. Further inside In the first half of 2026, the probability of selling BTC was 17%, indicating that market participants do not expect Strategy to make such a move at this time.
Source: Polymarkt
Here it is worth pointing out that the company recently took out insurance $1.4 billion and set up a fund to cover liabilities associated with dividends tied to the wide range of preferred shares it uses to finance BTC purchases.
The remainder of the $8 billion+ debt will begin maturing in 2028, giving the country ample time to maneuver. Perhaps this would explain the low expectations for the BTC dump strategy in the medium term.
However, any news of the Strategy dumping BTC would decimate the market, warned Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager of RIA Advisors. He warned,
“If there’s a headline that says Strategy is sold, even if it’s three Bitcoins, I think after everything Michael Saylor said about him never selling a cent, people are going to question the whole Bitcoin business.”
Final thoughts
- Michael Saylor made a surprise $962 million BTC purchase, raising hopes that the MSCI overhang could soon disappear.
- While the MSCI risk is still high, the chance of a BTC dump may be relatively small.