This metric isolates the cost basis of older Utxos (untreated transaction outputs) and offers insights into the behavior of long-term holders. These investors usually accumulate during bear markets and distribute in bull phases.
A rising long -term realized limit suggests that the inflow of capital and growing conviction continues, while a decrease can indicate taking profitable or weakening market sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin has responded sharply when this metric has approached important levels – or launching new meetings or falling into consolidation.
What do the data say?


Source: Alfractaal
The last data revealed a decrease in local highlights, with the metric department to the middle baseline. This cooling trend can indicate that the market can enter a break after months of Bullish Momentum.
Historically, a neutral or negative realized cap -impulse preceded the consolidation phases – or, in some cases, market corrections. In the attached graph, the newest red arrow pointed to this risk, although a blue arrow hinted at the potential for a recovery.


Source: Alfractaal
Especially in both 2016 and in 2020, dips in this metric were followed by renewed Bullish Momentum and final all-time highlights. If this pattern applies, Bitcoin can soon move to a battery phase prior to another outbreak.
Although signals on the chain remain carefully optimistic, macro and market-specific factors will strongly influence the path that affects heavily for us.
Bitcoin’s price forecast


Source: TradingView