Journalist
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Geopolitics continues to weigh on risky assets. This week alone, roughly $120 billion has been wiped from the market, pushing the TOTAL index back to pre-election levels as capital continues to rotate.
During the same period, gold (XAU) retreated, reinforcing the idea that investors are still leaning on the metal as a hedge. That said, one notable move stood out: XAU closed 3.19% lower on February 12.
At the same time Bitcoin [BTC] fell 1.2%, while the S&P500 (SPX) fell 1.57%, marking the sharpest one-day sell-off in almost a month. Overall, the session played out like another “market-wide” flush.
Source: TradingView
Naturally, the question arises: what prompted this step? A report from Bloomberg sparked new debate among analysts, suggesting Russia was returning to using the US dollar as part of a broader economic partnership.
From a technical perspective, the shift would herald a return to the dollar as a settlement tool, potentially leading to a dollar appreciation DXY a fresh tailwind after more than a year of downward pressure that dragged the economy back to 2022 levels.
However, Bitcoin’s dip after the news indicates that The market does not view this as bullish. Technically, a stronger dollar makes bonds a more attractive high-yield alternative, weakening BTC’s risk-reward appeal.
That said, recent cycles show that a falling dollar has not reliably driven Bitcoin higher. This raises the key question: Can a ‘sentiment’ shift associated with a strengthening US dollar actually turn bullish for risky assets?
Is sentiment more important than structure for Bitcoin?
The market is still not convinced that Bitcoin has found a bottom.
Several signals explain the hesitation. Bitcoin ETFsFor example, another $276 million of outflows were recorded after three consecutive days of inflows, demonstrating that institutional demand remains vulnerable.
Adding to the caution, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) has not yet turned bullish since its peak prior to October’s crash. Against this backdrop, it seems premature to call a BTC bottom as sentiment is far from being completely reset.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, accumulation remains active. Heavyweights such as Binance and Strategy (MSTR), who do bought over 42,000 BTC so far in 2026 continue to indicate stable long-term positioning despite the uncertainty.
Structurally, Bitcoin continues to trade in a choppy range above the $60,000 level, with accumulation helping to hold this zone as support. The main question is whether this range will lead to a breakout, but that will only happen sentiment shifts.
This is where the Bloomberg report becomes important, as highlighted by AMBCrypto. Sentiment, more than structure, is the driving force behind Bitcoin’s movements.
A strategic partnership between two major economies could help restore investor confidence, so this development should be closely monitored.
Final thoughts
- Despite structural support around $60,000, Bitcoin’s moves are driven more by sentiment than charts.
- Russia’s shift back to USD settlements and a potential strategic partnership could ease macro FUD, impacting both DXY and risky assets.