As March began, headlines about the war took center stage and the crypto market responded in complex ways.
When news broke of US and Israeli attacks on Tehran on February 28, withdrawals from Nobitex, Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, soared. Nearly $3 million left the platform.
For a country where Nobitex processed approximately $7.2 billion in transactions and served more than 11 million users in 2025, such a spike undoubtedly raised immediate questions.
For those who don’t know, Nobitex plays a crucial role in Iran’s digital economy. Allows users to convert the rapidly weakening Rial (official currency of Iran) into crypto assets like Bitcoin [BTC] or USDT and move that money to private wallets or foreign exchanges.
Is this ‘capital flight’?
Elliptical reported that shortly after the explosions in Tehran, money began flowing to overseas platforms known to serve Iranian users. At first glance this seemed to indicate a ‘capital flight’.
Source: Elliptical
“Capital flight” typically occurs when people lose confidence in their domestic economy and shift wealth to safer assets to avoid currency collapse, foreclosure, or financial instability.
However, Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs, clarified the situation in Iran in a private email sent to AMBCrypto:
“What we see in Iran is not clear evidence of massive capital flight, but rather of a market managing volatility under limited connectivity and regulatory intervention.”
With the Iranian Rial trade With a value of roughly 1,314,545 per US dollar on the open markets, concerns about currency weakness are understandable.
However, movement alone does not automatically prove a mass economic escape. Crypto makes cross-border transfers easier, but not every outflow equals panic.
According to For TRM Labs too, the broader picture actually points to contraction, not expansion. Following the strikes, the Iranian government imposed a 99% internet blackout, severely limiting market access.
Retail was shut down, automated systems stopped functioning and market makers were disrupted.
Market under pressure
Looking ahead, TRM Labs also highlighted that total transaction volume fell 80% between February 27 and March 1.
Thus, the reported $3 million spike at Nobitex appears to have been an internal wallet transfer for liquidity management, and not widespread user withdrawals.
Taken together, the data points to a market under pressure and heavy state control, not an uncontrolled rush to the exit. Redbord noted the same, adding:
“In moments of geopolitical escalation, crypto markets often reflect both financial stress and infrastructure pressure.”
The turmoil of the past and the global crypto market paint a confusing picture
It was not the first time such a spike occurred.
On January 9, during the civil unrest, there was another major wave of withdrawals. That event was also followed by a government-mandated internet blackout.
Fear was visible within Iran. Globally, however, the picture looked different. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies climbed to about $2.32 trillion, up 2.37% in 24 hours.
At first glance, the move seemed constructive.
However, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at age 14, indicating “extreme anxiety.” Prices rose, but confidence remained fragile.
As tensions eased in Tehran, Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative was put to the test in real time.
This pattern was not new. During crises, such as the hyperinflation in Venezuela or the repeated unrest in Iran, citizens often turned to crypto to protect their savings.
Taken together, the data suggested that crypto remained relevant, although far from a flawless haven.
Final summary
- While citizens responded quickly to geopolitical tensions, currency restrictions and central bank interventions limited the large-scale movement.
- As currency trading approaches all-time lows, digital assets remain an attractive hedge against devaluation.