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According to a detailed Bitwise threadBitcoin [BTC] has entered a new market phase. The company noted that Bitcoin no longer behaves like a leverage-driven asset.
Bitwise explained that institutional access and regulatory oversight have replaced the halving hype and speculative excesses. This shift, they argued, has helped reverse the extreme boom and bust cycles that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior.
Why Bitcoin remained calmer than Nvidia
Bitwise reported that Bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia in 2025. The company highlighted how Bitcoin’s rolling volatility has steadily decreased over the past decade.
They described this trend as a structural risk reduction in the crypto market. According to Bitwise, this shift is directly related to the rise of ETFs, which have broadened Bitcoin’s investor base and helped smooth out volatility.
Currently, these exchange-traded funds are acting as the new whales, driving Bitcoin and broader crypto flows. When ETFs withdraw liquidity, the markets interpret this as ‘risk off’. Conversely, when they buy aggressively, the sentiment shifts to ‘risk on’.
ETFs, institutions and growing market exposure
Bitwise predicted thatBy 2026, ETFs will buy more than the entire new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum [ETH]and Solana [SOL]. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have purchased 710,777 BTC, while the network has produced 363,047 BTC.
Source: SosoValue
The company predicted that crypto stocks will definitely outperform technology stocks in the current market cycle. It highlighted the Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which rose 585%, far surpassing tech’s 140% gain.
Bitwise expanded the outlook to prediction markets, stablecoins and tokenization. It predicted Polymarket open interest would hit new highs and warned that stablecoins could be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency as supply approached $300 billion.
Bitcoin price action analysis
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $88,000, with visible support following the broader pullback. Price reactions appeared more controlled than previous cycle corrections.
Source: TradingView
MACD fell to extremely bearish levels during the decline towards $80,000.
Momentum has fallen below the previous lows of August 2024 and April 2025, reflecting patterns of previous depletion phases.
Final thoughts
- Bitwise framed Bitcoin’s lower volatility versus Nvidia as a lasting structural shift.
- ETFs, regulations, and institutions have reshaped Bitcoin’s price behavior and market role.