Despite broader warning that 2026 could usher in a bear market, Grayscale has made a contrarian bet: a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin [BTC].
In his 2026 prospectsthe asset manager predicted that rising demand for safe havens, also known as the debasement trade, in addition to regulatory clarity, will drive BTC higher.
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle’. In our view, Bitcoin’s price is likely to reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year.”
Source: grayscale
According to Grayscale, the US debt problem will persist, devaluing dollar investments and forcing players to seek scarce “alternative stores of value” such as gold, silver, BTC or ETH. The company added:
“As long as the risk of fiat currency debasement continues to rise, wallet demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue to rise as well.”
Grayscale downplays THAT sale
As for the sell-off of digital asset treasuries (DATs) as a potential negative trigger for a bear market, the company downplayed such a scenario. The assessment of the exclusion from the MSCI index, just before the mid-January deadline, has made many investors nervous.
Currently, many market participants are concerned that Strategy could dump its BTC holdings, which could cause a market crash. This concern stems from the possibility that MSCI could remove Strategy, along with other DATs, from its index.
If that happens amid mNAVs’ already compressed relative value of their crypto holdings compared to corporate assets, pressure on the market could increase.
Source: grayscale
However, Grayscale stated that most DATs are not deployed excessively to cause liquidations and selloffs. It added,
“These vehicles will likely be a permanent feature of the crypto investment landscape, but they are unlikely to be a significant source of new demand for tokens or a significant source of selling pressure in 2026.”
Interestingly, Bitwise reflected Grayscale’s bullish outlook. In one memoBitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that institutional capital and regulatory clarity will drive the price of BTC higher in 2026.
Yet the current market positioning for options on Deribit suggested caution and extreme hedging in the first half of 2026.
This was reflected in the negative figures for the 25-Delta Skew over the 2, 3 and 6 month maturities, which underlined the bearish sentiment.
Source: Amberdata
It is still uncertain whether the traditional four-year cycle will be broken. Another question is whether DATs could further disrupt markets through forced liquidations.
At the same time, BTC traded at $86,000, kicking off a week marked by major macroeconomic updates.
Final thoughts
- Grayscale predicted that the likely passage of the Crypto Market Structure Act and Debasing Trade will lift BTC to a new ATH by the first half of 2026.
- Although the asset manager downplayed a DAT sell-off led by Strategy, the market was still cautious.