The Dogecoin price is still compressed into a tighter range just below $0.1, but analyst Lars has released an update to a technical framework he has been following for weeks, one that now points to a major move for the meme cryptocurrency. However, the outcome depends on one crucial confirmation that is yet to come.
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Dogecoin TCT model starts to play out
The Bitcoin influx is still ongoing driving the broader market, but Dogecoin has yet to be fully followed that inflow momentum. The price briefly rose above $0.10 in the last 24 hours, but has since moved back down, leaving this level as the key pivot point that will determine whether the price stays in range or transitions into a more decisive move.
That is the basis of a new chart update from crypto analyst Lars on where he said he has adjusted the premise of the current range and is now waiting for what he calls a distribution confirmation of TCT model 1.
Lars’ update focuses on a revised reading of where the current trading range should start, which changes the way the compression structure is interpreted. The charts he shared include Dogecoin shown moving upwards in a pink resistance band extending from $0.098 to the low $0.10 region.
That band is above a series of rising local lows on the one-hour candlestick chart, and the projected path suggests another push higher to a third tick before rejection. The 4-hour chart carries the same idea over a broader time frame, with Lars labeling the region as a decision range to check for distribution schedules, adding that no confirmation means no trading.
Dogecoin price chart. Source: @Larskooistra_ On X
The resistance at $0.10 and what lies below
The band from $0.098 to $0.100 has functioned as stubborn resistance for Dogecoin since the end of March. Dogecoin has formed lower highs while maintaining a stable base, indicating that while sellers remain active near resistance, they are no longer able to push the price significantly lower. However, the price action over the past three days led to a higher high compared to April 6, when the Dogecoin price touches $0.1 as predicted.
In another analysis the analyst said he tried to short Dogecoin during an extended TCT distribution, following a bearish structure break at the New York Open. The move initially appeared to confirm a further downtrend, but he noted that there were two possible explanations behind the price action.
One scenario was that the collapse was real, with market makers stepping in to lower the price right away during the open session. The other pointed to a manipulation sell-off, possibly linked to Bitcoin accumulation.
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The overall outlook for Dogecoin is still mixed when it comes to technical indicatorswith 16 indicators currently signaling bearish conditions, compared to 14 bullish signals at the time of writing, while the RSI stands at a neutral 61.45.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView