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Some analysts expressed concern that Bitcoin could experience a possible crash caused by the rift in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which will lead to a massive price drop.
With Bitcoin left to fill the gap, crypto traders predict that this could push the firstborn cryptocurrency near the critical CME gap, suggesting the price could go as low as $77,000 per coin.
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Bitcoin could fall to $77,000
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto suggested that the massive corrections Bitcoin has undergone could lead to the coin falling towards the $77,000 mark.
Egrag added that the flagship cryptocurrency has suffered approximately seven significant declines since October 2022, adding: “The average decline over these events is approximately 23.53%.”
#BTC Decline – Average Dump and CME (70K-74K): How and Why?
1⃣Average drop:
Since October 2022 #BTC has seen nearly seven significant declines. Here are the percentage drops:1) 22.70%
2) 20.18%
3) 21.70%
4) 21.42%
5) 23.27%
6) 25.82%
7) 29.65%📊 The average decline over… pic.twitter.com/Vz6QiZlnzF
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) December 27, 2024
“From the current high of around 108,975, we are looking at a potential decline to the lower end of the CME GAP (between 77,000 and 80,000). This represents a decline of 25%, which is well in line with the average decline observed during this cycle,” Egrag said in a post.
Egrag also noted that the current 21 Weekly EMA is around $80,000, suggesting that “another flash crash could be on the horizon.”
$80,000 CME gap
Another crypto analyst, XForceGlobal, reminded traders that “there is a 1D CME gap at $80,000.”
XForceGlobal said that historically since 2018, 90% of daily CME shortages have been larger than ultimately filled.
Just a friendly reminder: there is an $80,000 1D CME gap.
Statistically, since 2018, with the growing interest in gaps, 90% of gaps in the single day timeframe greater than $1,000 have ultimately been filled (ignore anything below the 1D timeframe).
The tricky part with CME gaps is… pic.twitter.com/wJC2ih5U8M
— XForceGlobal (@XForceGlobal) December 24, 2024
However, the crypto analyst noted that it is difficult to predict the timing and method of filling CME gaps.
“The challenge with CME gaps is that their timing and manner of filling remain unpredictable,” XForceGlobal said in a note.
The crypto analyst sees possible scenarios to fill the CME gaps. In one scenario,
In another scenario, .
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A market dump in January?
Egrag believes that market makers could use the upcoming inauguration of newly elected President Donald Trump to generate selling pressure for Bitcoin, which would contribute to its impending crash.
“Market makers are known for seizing opportunities during crises. Expect a market dump on Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). This could be the perfect local top for a sell-off, likely causing many new entrants to panic,” the crypto analyst said.
Egrag outlined two scenarios that could unfold based on current market conditions, suggesting that Bitcoin could pump to $120,000 in one scenario and later experience a dump to the CME GAP before “resuming the bull run” in 2025. ”
In another possible scenario, the crypto analyst said BTC could fall to the CME gap of $70,000 to $75,000 before the bull run resumes.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
