A report from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how transitions to strong upside phases have historically required liquidity to remain above a key threshold.
Bitcoin Rally may require the realized profit/loss ratio to exceed 5
In his last weekly magazine reportGlassnode has spoken about the liquidity conditions on the Bitcoin network as the asset’s price has fallen following the failed recovery attempt earlier this month.
“Any meaningful transition back to a sustainable rally should be objectively reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA),” the analytics firm explains. The realized profit/loss ratio refers to an indicator that, as the name suggests, compares the realized profit and loss that BTC investors realize from their trades.
When the value of this measure is greater than 1, it means that the holders as a whole realize a greater gain than loss. On the other hand, the fact that the indicator is below the threshold indicates that loss-taking is dominant on the network. Of course, if the realized profit/loss ratio is exactly equal to 1, it can be assumed that the average holder is just breaking even on their sales, with profits and losses harvested on the blockchain exactly canceling each other out.
Here is a chart showing the trend in the 90-day moving average (MA) of this Bitcoin indicator over the past ten years:
As shown in the chart above, the 90-day MA Bitcoin realized gain/loss ratio peaked in the second half of 2025, as investors exited with profits in the bull run. However, since this high, the indicator has fallen sharply.
At its peak, the value of the measure reached almost 20, indicating that profits were almost twenty times greater than losses, but recently the value has fallen all the way to a level below 2. Profit-taking is still dominant in the sector from the indicator’s perspective, but profits are now less than double losses.
According to Glassnode, transitions to strong upside have historically required this metric to rise and hold above a value of 5. Currently, the benchmark is still pointing downwards, so it is uncertain whether there will be any improvement in the near future and, if so, whether it will climb back above this threshold.
That said, Bitcoin liquidity has fallen below this level twice in this cycle alone and managed to break above it. Although in both cases it found a bottom at levels noticeably above the current value.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $87,800, down 2.4% in the past seven days.