Bitcoin fell sharply this month and is on the verge of one of its worst Novembers in years, leaving traders and fund managers to weigh whether to buy or hold.
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Based on reports, the token dropped around 18% in November and was trading below $91,000 as markets calmed heading into the weekend.
Market cleansing opens the door for buyers
According to MintGlassThis drop approaches the magnitude of the losses of November 2019, when Bitcoin fell about 17%, and is a far cry from the hard 35% crash of November 2018.
Reports have suggested that some analysts view the decline as a market reset. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, said overextended positions and weak projects have been largely cleared, which could allow longer-term holders to increase their positions at lower prices.
Technical levels are key
Traders keep a close eye on the monthly closing levels. An analyst using the handle CrediBull Crypto identified $93,400 and $102,400 as the two most relevant thresholds.
A close above $93,000 would be interpreted as a modest positive sign, the analyst said, while any monthly finish above $102,000 would be read as very bullish – although that may not happen for another month.
Bitcoin changed hands around $91,450 in midweek trading, failing to break a resistance just below $92,000.
Cycle changes and institutional flows
Based on reports from industry sources, some market watchers believe the rhythm of rallies has shifted since the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs early 2024.
According to some analysts, institutional participation has changed the timing and breadth of the steps. That has led to gains that, once clustered at the end of the year, could be visible sooner.
Market experts pointed out that November is typically a strong month for Bitcoin, and a red November has often been followed by a red December in recent years.
A standoff between bulls and bears
Matrix gate described the market as a rare zone of impasse where sentiment, positioning and macro cues all converge. Reports noted that Bitcoin rebounded above $91.8K over Thanksgiving, but this move did little to resolve the gap between bullish and bearish expectations.
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Liquidity has become thinner, volatility has decreased and calls for crash protection have faded. Glassnode added that realized losses have risen and futures markets are deleveraging, suggesting near-term conviction is weak. This mix leaves the market stuck between a boost toward $100,000 and a decline toward $80,000.
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Signs point to a big step, towards the unknown
A bullish hammer reversal occurred as Bitcoin briefly reached the $80K area, giving some traders hope for a holiday season rally.
Others say weak demand and limited liquidity could push prices lower before confidence returns. In both cases, markets have quietly positioned themselves for a bigger directional move, even though no one can say with certainty which way that move will go.
For the time being, Bitcoin is in a cautious intermediate phase. Investors and traders will be watching the month-end close, liquidity measures and options flows for clues.
The next clear signal could decide whether late buyers are rewarded – or whether sellers set a new range.
Featured image of Gemini, chart from TradingView