Whenever the annual rate of change of the S&P 500 becomes negative, Bitcoin has been found its cycle bottom.
Source: Alpharactal
This isn’t just a one-time quirk, either. Several major global indices show the same rhythm. An example:
Source: Alpharactal
The pattern could mean a deeper liquidity link between stocks and BTC, with weakness in one often meaning strength in the other.
Crucial structural support!
Data about the chain is clear. The CVDD channel (used to find key support levels) places that are in the sand around $88,000.
This is very similar to what BTC faced in mid-2022 around $29,000-$30,000, a level it initially defended before eventually settling lower.
Source: Alpharactal
If $88,000 fails now, patterns indicate the next value areas are around $76,800 and even $71,250.
At the same time, Retail interest is waning rapidlya clear indicator of late cycle capitulation.
Source: Santiment
The coming weeks will show which way the market will go.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether the CVDD support at $88,000 holds or breaks.
- With the yen carry unwinding at an accelerating pace, liquidity stress could determine BTC’s near-term fate.