- The short -term holders of Bitcoin have the same loss level as in August 2024.
- The MVRV ratio, combined with the STH realized price, provided insight into market sentiment and potential reversations.
Bitcoin [BTC] has always played a central role in shaping investment trends.
From March 2025, the price movements of Bitcoin passed by passes by Cycli, in particular the recession of August 2024, while deviating from the more serious decreases of 2021.
The accumulation of Bitcoin at 84,000 USD by holders in the short term, despite a short -term holder (STH), realized the price of 92,780 USD, a crucial bending point.
Many investors entered the cycle late and bought inflated levels above 90,000 USD.
This trend, in addition to the analysis of BTC’s Supply Age Bands and MVRV statistics, offers valuable insights into the current market structure.
Understanding these indicators is essential for traders who navigate between Beerarish dominance and potential bullish reversations due to the delicate balance.
In addition, the price of the short term realized the price and the STH-MVRV graph the price accumulation of Bitcoin at 84,000 USD, considerably lower than the STH realized price of 92,780 USD.
This 8,780 USD discrepancy indicated that many holders operated with a loss in the short term and resembled the August 2024 pattern when Bitcoin dropped to 70,000 USD before returning.
Source: Alfractaal
From mid -2024 to the beginning of 2025, the STH realized the price from 65,000 USD to 92,780 USD, as a result of late cycle buying behavior at inflated prices.
This trend suggested that traders who arrived at 90,000 USD or higher are now not experiencing losses.
If Bitcoin reclaims 92,780 USD, this can regain the Bullish Momentum and possibly test the 100,000 USD figure.
However, the no more than 80,000 USD can deepen the sales pressure, leading to a retest of the level of 70,000 USD.
Traders must follow these levels closely, because historical dips, such as the 75,000 USD fall in the end of 2024, often preceded strong rebounds.
Bitcoin’s liquidity implications
Furthermore, BTC’s Supply Age bands, which include 2012 to 2025, offer further clarity about market trends.
The cohort of 5-10 years peaked at 8 million BTC in 2021, while the 1-3 month supply band in 2024 reached 4 million BTC during the rally up to 100,000 USD.
This distribution shift suggests that holders have retained a strong grip on the supply in the long term, while newer coins became when the market grew up.
Source: Alfractaal
At the beginning of 2025, the 6-12-month tires stabilized at 3 million BTC, indicating that a considerable part of Bitcoin had switched to long-term holders.
This pattern was very similar to the 2017 cycle, where rapid accumulation ultimately led to a sharp correction.
If Bitcoin surpasses 100,000 USD, the younger supply tires may experience renewed activity, pushing new liquidity on the market.
Conversely, long -term price suppression below 80,000 USD can lead to further aging of the offer, which extends Bearish circumstances.
Market sentiment and newcomers behavior
The MVRV ratio of Bitcoin, combined with the STH realized price, offers insight into market sentiment and potential reversations. From 2020 to 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV fluctuated between 0.5 and 2.5.
The metric peaked at 2.2 mid -2024 before he dropped to 1.5 in March 2025.
Historically, MVRV values above 2.0 have indicated a surplus value, often prior corrections, while values indicate closer to 1.0 accumulation options.
Source: Alphalcratal
While the StH of Bitcoin realized price rose from 40,000 USD in 2021 to 92,780 USD in 2025, this reflected the increasing market optimism.
However, this growth ended parallel to overvaluation cycles, as in 2021 when MVRV exceeded the 2.0 before an important correction.
New traders, often influenced by media hype and influencer-driven speculation, bought Bitcoin at 95,000 USD, where MVRV warnings were considered 1.5.
If MVRV recovers 2.5 in addition to an increased purchase volume, Bitcoin could again test 120,000 USD. However, if it falls to 1.0, this can indicate a deeper decline, making the range of 70,000 USD possible.
