A high-conviction Bitcoin whale placed a $2 billion bet that the worst is over and the market may have bottomed after a brutal washout cleared the speculative froth from the crypto market.
On November 24, Deribit, Coinbase’s crypto options trading platform, reported a notional block trade of 20,000 BTC, which seems to indicate that institutional capital is shifting from damage limitation to strategic accumulation.
According to the platform:
“[The] The trader has lifted a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25. The signal is clear: a structured bullish view – expect BTC to reach the 100-118k zone, and not explode beyond it.”
What does this trade mean?
This position essentially raises expectations that the recent liquidation cascade has marked a cycle-defining low that has cleared the runway for a march toward six figures.
The trading structure is indeed precise. By buying call options for $100,000 and $118,000 and selling call options for $106,000 and $112,000, the investor focuses on a specific profit corridor.
It represents a bet that BTC will recover and settle into a high valuation band, but without the chaotic volatility that characterized the recent crash.
Meanwhile, this positioning comes at a critical time. Although private investors remain hesitant, the derivatives market indicates that the structural damage has been repaired.
Thus, the trade implies that the recent drop of $27,000 from the highs was a necessary cleansing event, resetting the board for the next phase of the cycle.
The flush of 1.3 million BTC
To understand the conviction behind the $1.7 billion bet, you have to look at the size of the wreckage left behind. The market just experienced the sharpest contraction in open interest of the entire cycle.
According to facts from CryptoQuant, open interest in Bitcoin terms has dropped by approximately 1.3 million BTC over the past 30 days. The vast majority of this settlement took place on Binance, marking a decisive end to the speculative fever that had previously driven overall open interest to record highs.
This scale of capitulation reflects the depths of the 2022 bear market. As a result, BTC’s recent decline from $106,000 to around $79,500 was driven primarily by mechanical liquidation cascades rather than fundamental decay.
This means that traders with long positions were wiped off the board in a violent feedback loop, turning a healthy correction into a crash.
However, historical patterns indicate that these “cleansing phases” are often bullish signals.
By forcing the closure of overly optimistic positions and flushing out weak hands, the market builds a more stable bottom. The reduction in speculative exposure implies that distressed debt selling pressure has now been exhausted.
Whales are piling up, retail is fleeing
Meanwhile, on-chain data, beneath the surface of the derivatives flow, shows a clear shift in ownership that supports the floor thesis.
The market is going through a transition from aggressive sales to orderly settlement. Key stress metrics such as transfer volumes and realized changes in capitalization have declined, a hallmark of late-cycle corrections.
More importantly, a clear difference has emerged between the investor cohorts. While retail investors (those holding less than 10 BTC) have been net sellers over the past 60 days, mid-market “sharks” and institutions are intervening.
CryptoQuant facts shows that BTC cohorts holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, as well as those holding more than 10,000 BTC, have steadily increased during the dip. These sophisticated players are absorbing the supply distributed by anxious retail hands.
However, the only remaining headwind is the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort, which continues to spread.
So for the recovery to turn into a confirmed reversal, this group must slow its selling. As such, the $1.7 billion options bet is an early indicator that the “smart money” believes this shift is imminent.
Macro pivots
At the same time, the timing of the whale trade anticipates a favorable shift in the macro environment. The coming week will be full of heavy economic data releases, including US PPI and PCE figures, which will anchor expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.
With markets pricing in an 81% probability of a rate cut, a mild skew in the numbers would provide immediate liquidity support for risky assets.
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin shared CryptoSlate that the increased likelihood of a rate cut has helped push Bitcoin’s recent uptrend above $87,000.
“We could see even more upside in the near term if sentiment holds, especially with long positions underweight,” he said, warning that optimism is “weak” with the FOMC divided and no corroborating data yet.
Puckrin added that the Fed’s next decision could decide whether the end of the year will bring a “Santa rally” or a “Santa dump,” and he expects the jitters to continue into the Dec. 10 meeting.
In this context, the Call Condor acts as a strategic vehicle. The size of the position alone creates enormous hedging flows for dealers. As prices move towards the $100,000 activation zone, dealers who have sold the structure will be forced to hedge their exposure, creating a magnetic pull towards the profit margin.