Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), argues that Bitcoin could reach $11 million in the first quarter of 2036, not because it replaces the financial system, but because it becomes the dominant long-term savings asset in an economy reshaped by AI-led deflation and repeated monetary expansion. His thesis, outlined in a March 2 Substack note, views bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as the asset most likely to absorb excess liquidity in a world of falling production costs and chronic policy intervention.
Burnett’s base case implies a bitcoin network value of roughly $230 trillion by 2036. He puts that against a global financial asset base that he estimates could grow from more than $1 trillion today to about $1.97 trillion over the next decade, assuming an annual increase of 7%. In that context, Bitcoin would represent approximately 12% of global financial assets.
“This outcome reflects a measured repricing of global wealth toward the only monetary asset with absolute scarcity,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin doesn’t need to replace all currencies. It doesn’t need universal everyday transactional use. It just needs to become the primary long-term savings asset in a world defined by monetary expansion and technological deflation.”
The Bitcoin 2036 AI Deflation Thesis
Central to the argument is what Burnett calls the “AI deflation engine.” His view is that artificial intelligence will reduce labor costs, speed up production and intensify competition between both digital and physical industries, creating continued downward pressure on prices. He compares the shift to the car’s displacement of horses, but says the target this time is white-collar labor. AI, he wrote, is already drafting contracts, analyzing financial data, writing code and conducting research once conducted by junior professionals, as robotics continues to penetrate logistics, manufacturing and agriculture.
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In a neutral monetary system, he argues, such productivity growth would simply increase real purchasing power. In a debt-based fiat system, it becomes destabilizing. Falling wages, weaker asset prices and fixed nominal liabilities do not mix well. “As AI fuels deflation in the real economy, central banks and fiscal authorities are increasing liquidity to prevent a deflationary spiral,” Burnett wrote. “The more effective AI becomes at reducing costs, the more aggressive the monetary response becomes to prevent debt deflation.”
That policy reflex is the bridge to bitcoin. Burnett argues that every deflationary shock starts with a shift to cash and government bonds, but that this phase often gives way to interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, credit support and fiscal transfers. He points to previous episodes from 1987, 2001, 2008, 2020 and 2022 as evidence that policymakers will not tolerate continued deflation. According to him, the long-term result is persistent productivity deflation, accompanied by persistent monetary expansion, a mix that leaves capital searching for something whose supply cannot be politically expanded.
From there, Burnett widens the lens. According to him, stocks are increasingly exposed to AI-driven creative destruction. Real estate retains its scarcity value, but technology could speed up design, permitting and construction, limiting long-term profits. Government bonds, meanwhile, provide nominal stability while remaining tied to currencies that are subject to continued dilution. Bitcoin, he argues, falls into a different category because its supply limit, divisibility, portability and verifiability make it uniquely suited to absorb global liquidity over time.
He also links this statement to a newer market structure he calls “Digital Credit” – income-generating securities backed by large bitcoin balance sheets. Burnett cites publicly traded instruments such as STRC and SATA as examples of vehicles that provide dollar income to credit investors while channeling capital into additional bitcoin accumulation. That, he argues, could create a reflexive loop between the global demand for returns and buying bitcoins.
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The note relies heavily on scarcity mathematics. Burnett writes that in 2036, fewer than 41,000 new BTC will be issued for the entire year. If global financial assets reach roughly $2 trillion and just 1% of incremental capital formation in one year pursues monetary preservation in bitcoin, that would still amount to $1.4 trillion competing for that limited new supply – or roughly $34 million in demand per new coin issued.
“The path will not be smooth, but the conclusion will become increasingly clear,” Burnett wrote. “Bitcoin’s trajectory to eight-figure price levels reflects structural monetary conditions rather than speculative enthusiasm and ‘faith’. As liquidity continues to increase in a technologically deflationary world, capital will concentrate in assets capable of retaining value over time.”
His closing point is less about linear valuation than about timing. The markets, he argues, are still pricing bitcoin as a volatile cyclical asset. According to him, the coming decade will increasingly see this as a monetary infrastructure. Regardless of whether that transition comes anywhere close to his $11 million goal, Burnett’s thesis is clear: If AI continues to drive abundance and policymakers continue to offset it with liquidity, Bitcoin could be where a growing share of global capital ends up.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,958.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com