Key Takeaways
How is Bitcoin’s price action faring?
BTC fell to $85,000 after a sustained correction of 7% in 24 hours.
Is recovery possible for Bitcoin?
The True Market Mean remains the final support level for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin [BTC] is now 46 days away from its all-time high, with a press-time value of $85,975 – which is eighth day away from the $100,000 threshold.
Bitcoin falling below this level is not new. This year alone, the sector has closed below the threshold three times. However, this time may be different as the likelihood of a bear market increases.
Fractal pattern in place
A repeating fractal pattern is a technical indicator that suggests that Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a bearish phase. Especially as the price of crypto continues to form new lows.
This indicator, which has accurately predicted the previous three bear markets, now suggests that Bitcoin has entered this cycle again. In fact, the data seemed to indicate that the shift may have started ten days ago.
Source: Alpharactal
Speaking about the development, João Wedson noted that while macroeconomics plays a role in determining Bitcoin’s trend, there comes a point where the assets start to decouple.
“When the price is at an ATH or all-time low, at those extremes Bitcoin completely breaks its correlation with traditional assets.”
Bitcoin’s latest decline already points in that direction. Market analysis has also revealed that buyers who entered the market in the last fourteen months are now incurring major losses.
Such a sentiment is also evident in the derivatives market. For example, Hyperliquid found that 96% of its traders are now at a loss for the past six months.
The trend remains tilted lower
The likelihood that Bitcoin could remain in this phase for an extended period of time has been strengthened as the Delta Growth Rate has turned negative. This indicator compares the growth of market capitalization with the growth of realized capitalization.
When it turns negative, it means Bitcoin is losing support relative to its on-chain value. Historically, when this happens, Bitcoin tends to move sideways while maintaining a broader downward trajectory.
Source: Alpharactal
Derivatives traders are already echoing this sentiment. According to the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, which determines whether buying or selling pressure dominates, sellers currently have the upper hand.
In the last 24 hours alone, taker sellers have reduced volume to negative $92 million. This means that the asset has fallen further on the chart, further increasing the risk of bankruptcy.
However, AMBCrypto also found that there is still a possibility that Bitcoin could stage a recovery, based on another key metric.
New criteria for a recovery
There remains a chance of a market recovery. This outlook is based on an analysis of the True Market Mean – an indicator that tracks the average purchase price of Bitcoin across the market.
This level, which stood at $81,900 at the time of writing, could determine whether the market enters a fully bearish phase or remains only mildly bearish.
Source: Glassnode
A breakdown below this zone could expose Bitcoin to a much deeper correction, potentially reflecting the severity of the 2023 bear market.
For now, the True Market Mean remains the last major support for Bitcoin before a more significant drop in the market.