Key Takeaways
Is BTC Strong Right Now?
Yes. LTHs continue to make gains and Bitcoin owns nearly $110,000.
Will trader confidence return to the market?
Slowly. Leverage on Binance is creeping back, but full speculation has not yet returned.
Bitcoin [BTC] trading around $110,000, with long-term holders (LTHs) posting solid gains and returning to Binance [BNB].
Traders view this move as psychological, with $113,000 acting as a key level that could either trigger a breakout or aid in another round of resistance-based selling.
LTHs are not yet showing signs of stress
The net unrealized gain/loss (NUPL) for LTHs remains firm in positive territory, meaning most companies are still sitting on significant unrealized gains.
Source: Alpharactal
This metric serves as a benchmark for market confidence among seasoned investors. Despite recent price volatility near $110,000, the data shows that long-term conviction remains unwavering.
For this group to experience real financial discomfort, Bitcoin would have to fall below $37,000; a level we have not seen since early 2024.
As it stands, their positioning provides a psychological buffer, reducing the likelihood of panic selling in the current range.
A late cycle phase?
Source: Alpharactal
The LTH/STH SOPR ratio is trending downward, meaning LTHs are scaling back their sales activities while STHs continue to try to secure profits.
Such differences have emerged around cycle peaks, as seen in late 2021 and mid-2017.
With the ratio hovering around the historical lower bound, it is clear that LTHs are showing restraint, leaving room for STHs to dominate the short-term price action.
This could trigger a brief speculative upswing before broader market momentum recovers – similar to the pattern observed during previous phases of high volatility.
Source: Alpharactal
Moreover, Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price was just below $100,000, which acted as a crucial short-term support zone. As long as BTC trades above, STHs will continue to make gains, keeping sentiment stable in the short term.
However, a downward slide could lead to sharper corrections.
Leverage creeps back in
Leverage on Binance is slowly rise again after a sharp decline in mid-October.
The estimated leverage ratio increased from 0.148 to 0.166; a measured return on risk behavior.
This matches Bitcoin’s gradual recovery from $104,000 to just above $110,000, meaning traders are testing the waters without going all-in.
Source: CryptoQuant
Unlike previous peaks, this debt build-up is being contained, indicating limited confidence in near-term upside potential. The lack of heavy speculation shows that the market is still waiting for direction.
If Bitcoin stays above $110,000, confidence could slowly return.