A crypto analyst revisited the long-term charts from 2012-2015 and noted that the current Bitcoin (BTC) cycle bears striking similarities to this timeline, in terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action. During the 2017-2015 bull run, BTC had one of the strongest multi-year advances before bottoming out. The market expert claims that the same series of peaks and pullbacks observed in that timeline is now unfolding again in this cycle.
Bitcoin RSI Comparison Signals Bottoming Structure
Bitcoin’s latest momentum study by crypto analyst Tony Severino has attracted a lot of attention from market watchers. In his X-post on December 6, Severino marked surprising similarities between the RSI trend and price movements of the 2023-2026 cycle and those observed between 2012 and 2015.
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His comparison focuses on the timing of several key points that emerged in both cycles. These include when a price bottom started to form, the first price peak, a subsequent momentum peak, and finally a bearish divergence which usually precedes deeper correction phases.
Severino shared a chart from the 2012-2015 cycle that showed Bitcoin’s RSI had been gradually rising, with several short bursts of sharper upward momentum along the way. Possibly, momentum fadedand the indicator declined for an extended period before settling in a middle zone at the 44 level.
In the current cycle, which started in 2023, the RSI also climbed sharply before reaching a notable peak. Since then the indicator has gradually decreasedcurrently around 38. This level is comparable to the mid-range RSI values observed in the previous cycle before Bitcoin advanced again.
Sharing a second chart, Severino also pointed out Bitcoin’s price action versus RSI performance in both cycles. During the earlier cycle, Bitcoin’s price was around $233.54, while in the recent cycle it has fallen to $89,352. The analyst states that the alignment between the RSI moves and the price action in both timelines strengthens his theory that Bitcoin could be too is approaching a meaningful bottom soon.
Severino also suggested that if history repeats itself in the 2023-2026 cycle, traders could be looking at the early stages of a accumulation phase of one yearcomparable to what happened ten years ago. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that there is no guarantee that the current cycle will fully reflect past patterns.
Analyst Highlights New BTC Bullish Crossover
Crypto analyst AO has shared a more optimistic view of Bitcoin, involving the formation of a Bullish crossover– an important technical signal that historically preceded significant price increases. According to him, every time the stochastic RSI at US10Y*CN10Y experiences a Bullish Crossover, Bitcoin enters a significant bull run.
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AO presented a chart showing four previous Bullish Crossovers, each followed by a huge price increase. The first crossover appeared in 2013, coinciding with an early wave. The second came in 2017 and marked the start of a multi-month bull run. The third took place at the end of 2020, shortly before BTC’s Record-Breaking Run in 2021. The most recent signal has not yet come from 2025, indicating the potential for a similar upward move.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com