Bitcoin could be vulnerable to another sharp leg lower if a developing wedge pattern breaks down, according to market technician Aksel Kibar, whose latest charting points to a possible move towards $52,500. The warning is important because Kibar does not view this as a macro hot take or a sentiment call, but as a purely technical risk signal built around the same structure he flagged before Bitcoin’s previous sell-off.
In one of his last to inform About That reservation is central to the drafting. He doesn’t say Bitcoin should trade there. He says a confirmed structure loss (currently around $66,000) would open that path on the chart.
History repeating itself for Bitcoin?
Kibar combined that with a broader point about trade management rather than directional conviction. “If you entered with a card signal, you must also leave with the card signal,” he wrote. In a follow-up, he added: “How can charts be used as a risk management tool? By moving to the sidelines when the time is not right, you protect capital and free it up for other opportunities.” Read together, the message is less about talking about a dramatic collapse than about respecting the invalidity when a technical scheme fails.
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The backdrop is a call Kibar made on January 19, when Bitcoin was consolidating below what he considers its long-term trend filter, the 365-day EMA. At the time, when the price trade was within a rising wedge and was rejected near the upper limit around $97,000, he wrote:
“The consolidation below the long-term average. In cryptocurrencies, I take the 365 day EMA. In stocks, I take the 200 day EMA as my trend filter for the entire year. So far, BTCUSD has been respecting the annual average. This is part of the search for a base. The pattern can become a rising wedge, mostly bearish in an attempt to test the 73.7K-76.5K support area.”
That support zone eventually came under pressure, and the chart he reposted now shows a deeper washout towards the $60,000 area before the latest upswing, which he said could be a similar wedge.
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Notably, Kibar is one of the most respected technical analysts on The CMT Association also lists him as a presenter and contributor.
For Bitcoin traders, the immediate implication is simple. When Kibar speaks, the market tends to pay attention. As long as the price stays within the wedge or breaks out, bulls have little to worry about. But a break below $66,000 could open the door for another decline towards $52,000.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $70,259.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com