Bitcoin [BTC] was trading around $70,800 at the time of writing, following a recovery from the $65,000 demand zone, which was in line with the highlighted support band between $64,500 and $66,500.
Initially, the price reacted strongly within this zone, forming a base after multiple tests as buyers stepped in to meet the selling pressure. As a result, recent candles have shown a short-term recovery with the price rising back above $70,000.
However, this recovery remains tentative as prices struggle to expand into the range between $71,400 and $75,600. The upper wicks of recent candles indicate early signs of rejection, while bodies lack strong follow-through.
Meanwhile, volume remained relatively subdued during the advance, in contrast to higher participation during previous declines.
Bitcoin’s upside is unconvincing as derivatives cool off
As momentum gradually increases, the $65,000–$66,500 zone continues to define the current value area. Unless buyers maintain the pressure above $71,000 and move towards $74,000, the price may reverse to retest the support, maintaining a bandwidth-bound structure.
Bitcoin is heading higher, but derivatives positioning reveals a fragile foundation under this move. Initial, Financing rates remained slightly positive, with Binance at 0.0001% and the OI weighted on average almost 0.0020%, indicating cautious participation rather than aggressive bidding.
With prices rising, this subdued backdrop suggests the move is leaning on short trimming, not new demand.
At the same time liquidation facts reinforced this imbalance, as only $74 million in short positions were closed, compared to $395 million in long liquidations. Even though the price is high, the pain is felt by the bulls, which usually precedes a deeper flush.
In the meantime, Open interest fell to approximately $48.5 billion, down 4.8% in 24 hours, due to the closure of positions.
As this unfolds, momentum dissipates quickly after each upward push, while long positions dissipate shortly after. Without a sustainable rebuild of Open Interest alongside price strength, the advance risks fading, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to another pullback.
Bitcoin’s structure remains vulnerable
The price was hovering just above the 20-day EMA at $70,624 at the time of writing, but momentum remained uncertain. Initially, BTC tried to stabilize after recovering from the sub-$65,000 level, forming a short-term base.
However, as the price approached the 50-day EMA at $72,772, repeated rejections emerged, with the upper wicks near $74,500 indicating continued supply.
The structure reflects hesitation rather than strength, as the candles failed to close decisively above the major moving averages. The RSI remained close to 50.68, indicating neutral momentum and a lack of strong directional bias.
For the time being, purchasing pressure appears limited, with no clear expansion of participation.
Unless the price reclaims the $73,000-$74,500 zone with conviction, the move risks fading, while it could gradually return to deeper support levels previously established.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s recovery above $70,000 shows weak conviction as moderate volume, soft funding, and $395 million in longs outweigh limited short coverage.
Bitcoin remains confined to resistance at $71,400 – $75,600, and without a strong close above $73,000 – $74,500, a downtrend toward $65,000 – $66,500 remains likely.