- Arthur Hayes predicts a slow uptrend for Bitcoin after hitting a local bottom
- Bitcoin’s value will stabilize between $60,000 and $70,000 until August, he added
The past few weeks have been difficult for the crypto market, with the same market marked by a sharp decline in the value of Bitcoin. From a peak of $73,000 in March, Bitcoin has fallen more than 19%, with a notable drop of 7.8% in the past week alone. This steep decline has investors and market observers looking for signs of stability and potential recovery paths.
Exec weighs in: a turnaround on the horizon?
However, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has shared a glimmer of hope amid the market volatility. In his last blog postthe director suggested that Bitcoin has hit a local low, while also predicting a gradual upward move in the coming months.
This perspective contrasts with the prevailing market sentiment, which has been largely bearish due to various economic pressures. These include uncertainties about Federal Reserve policy and a general slowdown in cryptocurrency investment.
Hayes believes that the recent 12% drop in Bitcoin’s price was necessary for a market correction. He attributes this to the US tax season, which often prompts investors to liquidate their holdings due to tax obligations. In addition, he pointed to the ‘sell the news’ effect that has existed since the last Bitcoin halving and a slowdown in the growth of assets under management in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Market mechanisms: liquidity and future projections
One of the more intriguing aspects of Hayes’ analysis is his discussion of the implications of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) strategy. He believes that phasing out the QT could lead to more liquidity in financial markets, potentially benefiting riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
In fact, he described this process as a form of “stealth money printing” that could boost asset prices, leading to a sustained recovery phase.
Furthermore, Hayes is optimistic about the market’s ability to absorb these changes and begin a slow climb. He foresees a scenario in which the market will stabilize and then gradually rise, blunting the more drastic price movements of late. As for his price prediction, Hayes noted:
“A rally above $60,000 and then price action between $60,000 and $70,000 through August.”
Here it is worth noting that Bitcoin has shown signs of a so-called “slow climb” on the charts over the past 24 hours. While rising to a 24-hour high of $59,966, BTC also recorded trading volume that exceeded $30 billion, according to data from CoinGecko.
Melker thinks differently
However, despite these positive projections, some analysts are more cautious. According to Scott Melker, for example, because Bitcoin has that broken past crucial support levels, which now serves as resistance, could cause further price declines. In fact, he believes a potential freefall to around $52,000 wouldn’t be out of the question.
Melker further claimed that the recent decline is relatively small, down only 23%, and is well in line with previous corrections seen during this cycle. A more significant correction of 30% to 40% is likely during this market phase, he added.