Bitcoin [BTC] managed to climb above the $90,000 level after hitting the lows of $90,250 in the late hours of Sunday.
Crypto analyst Maarunn pointed out that Monday was the strongest trading day in the past month.
Source: Maartunn on X
The Monday movement will not necessarily continue. Four of the past five Mondays witnessed a liquidity grab to the upside before making a V-reversal to chase the long liquidations below the open of the day.
In terms of longer-term expectations, some crypto analysts believe that we have witnessed the beginning of a bear market for BTC.
The growing chances of a US Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 could fuel bullish sentiment and drive the price higher this year.
Bitcoin Price: The $100,000 Challenge
A Adler Crypto InsightThis week’s post sheds light on why BTC has a bearish bias. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. used the HODL structure and the 30-day flow metric to demonstrate how the ownership structure has stabilized somewhat.
From January 5 to 11, long-term holders (6 months or more) saw an increase in realized cap share from 43.29% to 43.69%. This 0.40% change indicated a gradual shift in ownership toward LTHs.
At the same time, the 30-day migration to the 12-month+ LTH segment fell from 2.12% to 1.81%.
This was evidence that the growth in the share of 12-month long-term holders in the realized limit was the result of a transition from 6-12-month old coins to the 12-month+ segment and was not the result of increased accumulation in the 12-month or older category.
There was no new influx of HODLers in the long term. On the contrary, at current Bitcoin price levels, half of last year’s holders were not ready to capitulate as losses remain bearable.
Over the past ten days, long-term holders’ distribution pressure remained in the neutral distribution zone. The favorable accumulation regime, where the benchmark existed in recent weeks, has ended.
It is likely that as the Bitcoin price moves towards $100,000, distribution pressure from long-term holders increases.
The three-month liquidation heatmap agreed that the $100,000 area was critical. The $96k-$100k was a magnetic zone with a significant amount of liquidity.
Since the price is attracted to liquidity, it is very likely that BTC will rise towards $100,000 in January.
The long-term distribution of holders and new whales exiting the market at breakeven levels around $99,000 threatened to derail a breakout past key psychological resistance.
Final thoughts
- The Bitcoin price jumped above $92,000, marking an encouraging start to the week, but Mondays have been volatile in recent weeks.
- Long-term holders’ distribution pressure could increase as BTC surges toward $100,000, a crypto analyst has warned.