Key Takeaways
What is the status of the Bitcoin LTH sale?
It has reached $43 billion amid negative flows in ETFs, putting further pressure on the BTC price.
Is recovery possible for BTC?
Most likely if ETF inflows recover. However, traders prepared for a downward move to $96k or lower.
Bitcoin [BTC] OG whale, Owen Gunden, offloaded another 700 BTC via Kraken on November 11. This week alone, he dumped $200 million worth of BTC (1800 coins).
It was part of a broader sell-off trend by long-term holders (LTH), who had owned the asset for more than five months.
The trader has accelerated his sell-off since October, reducing his own BTC shares from over 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.4 billion) to 5,350 BTC (approximately $560 million).
Source: Arkham
Although Gunden’s stock was almost completely sold out, pressure from other OG whales could still derail BTC’s strong recovery.
The LTH dump is $43 billion
In November, LTH sold an average of approximately 414,000 BTC (equivalent to approximately $43 billion) monthly.
And the pressure started in July and intensified in October, adding to the second-half headwind that has dragged BTC from $126,000 to above $100,000.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, there is always one common counterargument: if BTC hit a new price peak of $126,000 in October during the whale sell-off, why can’t it bounce back now?
At the start of the second half of 2025, overall demand and institutional flows from ETFs and government bonds were strong enough to absorb the selling pressure without impacting the BTC price.
However, in recent weeks, this demand curve has turned negative, further exacerbating BTC’s headwinds.
Notably, ETF outflows in November amounted to 31,000 BTC, which closely mirrors the weak market sentiment observed in early 2025 during the rate wars.
Source: CryptoQuant
Options data suggests caution
With the negative apparent demand, the whale dump has become more evident in weakening BTC momentum. A rebound in ETF inflows could soften the decline.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $105,000. In fact, market caution has increased, as evidenced by increased hedging activity in the US market Options market.
According to Options volumes, most traders bought puts (bearish bets, hedging) with a year-end price target of $85k.
Source: Arkham
For options expiring at the end of November, there was notable hedging activity and demand for downside protection for a move to $96,000.
The only call buy (bullish bets, green) occurred in the last 24 hours at $108,000, underscoring growing expectations of an extended correction below $100,000.