- BTC tagged a record high of more than $ 111k, but the market was not overheated.
- Option dealers prices a 15% of the BTC that extended to $ 120k at the end of May.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] Run -up to a new ATH of $ 111.8k extended the recovery profit from the crypto asset to 48%.
But the Recordrally was not accompanied by massive market leverage, which indicates a healthy situation for bullish continuation.
But other indicators who follow an overheated market do the same image and what are the most important levels to watch at?
Assessing the upward risks of BTC
One of the best indicators for measuring the market for measuring the market, financing speed (FR), still had to flash overheated warning signals at the time of the press.
The FR for BTC varied from 3% to 20% in the past three days. The indicator is used to link the price of the BTC -century (futures) contract to the market value.
To achieve the correlation, traders pay compensation, the FR, to maintain their position.
In a bullish market, financing is positive and bulls (longs) pay periodically, about every 8 hours. The opposite applies to Bearish markets.
Source: Coinglass
That said, excessive market lever (taking mass loans) to bet on price, is always marked by a high FR between 50% and 100%.
This type of market foam always happens in bull runs, which increases the liquidation risks, a sign of an overheated bull market. The result is probably a cooling or pullback.
That is what happened after the huge BTC walk above $ 100k last November and December. BTC’s FR jumped above 50% and even hit 100% (Orange Zones).
On the contrary, the pump from May to $ 111k was different and characterized by a healthy market with low leverage.
So from the perspective of financing percentages, the risk of a price reverse as a result of an overheated market remained low.
Another data that supported further Uptrend was the real MVRV, a valuation meter. At the time of the press, the metric was appreciated at 1.7 and previously marked local tops in the late and at the beginning of 2024 when he tapped 2.
Assuming that history is repeating itself, BTC still has a light space for growth before a local peak touches around 2 or a cyclespiek (as MVRV 3 hits 3).
Source: Cryptuquant
But how much higher can BTC rise from $ 111K?
Option dealers only estimate a 15% chance that BTC will reach $ 120k by the end of May. Contracts aimed at $ 115k and $ 120k were the most purchased in the last 24 hours.
Even calls sought $ 130k by September, saw strong bids, which signaled a considerable bullish sentiment for Q2 and Q3.
Whether these bets will materialize will remain uncertain.
