Key Takeaways
Why Did Bitcoin Fail in October 2025?
BTC fell as retail interest declined, network activity cooled, and macro pressures weighed on the market.
Could November bring a demonstration?
Historically strong for BTC, November could offer upside potential thanks to macro catalysts.
‘Uptober’ was not released this year.
Instead of the usual benefit, Bitcoin [BTC] fell and with it the interest of the retail trade disappeared. Network activity decreases as fear takes over.
Can the rally continue in November?
BTC was having a hard time, all eyes on November
Bitcoin’s price fell from around $118,000 to almost $110,000 in late October, with mid-month red candles and volume spikes indicating profit-taking.
The RSI was below neutral and BTC was trading below the key EMAs at the time of writing, confirming the exhaustion of the trends.
Source: TradingView
Macro factors extra pressure. Hopes for a Fed rate cut in December have faded somewhat, removing some support from the market.
At the same time, US stocks outperformed, China enforced crypto restrictions and concerns about ‘DAT companies’ in Washington added to the story.
Source: CoinGlass
Looking ahead, November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. CoinGlass has shown an average return of 8.81% since 2013, with double-digit gains in 2020, 2021 and 2023.
Source: CME FedWatch
Several positive market catalysts are starting to take shape.
First, trade tensions between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have eased, reducing geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, data from CME Fed Watch points to a greater than 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which could boost investor sentiment.
Furthermore, quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to end on December 1, potentially increasing market liquidity.
Finally, potential approvals for new ETFs are on the horizon, adding to growing optimism in the financial sectors.
The tide can turn.
Retail fear in numbers
Open interest almost jumped 10% on a seven-day basis, rising from $7.95 billion to $8.65 billion as BTC traded near $110,000, but CVD fell sharply at the same time.
Source: CryptoQuant
Usually that combination means that new shorts are opened, and not longs. The retail sector is betting on a new downturn.
Source: CryptoQuant
Active addresses have also fallen from 1.18 million in November 2024 to 872 million on October 30 – a decrease of 26.1%.
Source: CryptoQuant
Transaction fees fell sharply from $8.44 to $0.56 over the same period, indicating partially filled blocks and reduced activity from private users.
Source: CryptoQuant
This declining retail presence lengthens cycles, making rallies take longer to come to fruition.