The market is at a point where investors’ patience is being tested.
Simply put, HODLers are deciding whether to remain positioned for upside or reduce risk in anticipation of a deeper correction that could compress the P&L. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding Japanese bond yields is reinforcing risk aversion.
In this setup, it is not surprising that Bitcoin’s [BTC] The on-chain metrics don’t show a Q2-style recovery. When, BTC’s STH NUPL returned after two months of FUD, but this time remains firmly in the red.
Source: CryptoQuant
It is striking that the current FUD seems to be penetrating further and further into the network.
According to the chart above, Miner Reserves are down 900 BTC over the last two days, amounting to $76 million in sell-offs. When compared to them Average mining costsit is clear that these miners are operating at a loss.
In short, Bitcoin’s signals continue to point to capitulation.
And yet, despite this apparent stress, BTC still remains above the $85,000 level. This resilience raises an important question: has the textbook “buy the fear” format finally taken hold, strengthening BTC’s bottom?
New whale activity accounts for half of Bitcoin’s realized limit
In the current macro setup, whale support is starting to play a major role.
For context, Stress is increasing in Japan after the BOJ raised rates by 25 basis points, the highest level in 30 years.
The effect?
Spot Bitcoin demand is muted, with American investors mainly by remaining largely on the sidelines.
That said, this volatility creates an excellent foundation for a shift in BTC supply dynamics. Weak hands are shaken out, while stronger hands are left to pick up the available supply. The graph below in particular reinforces this point.
Source: CryptoQuant
Nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s realized cap now comes from new whale buyers.
For context, the realized limit reflects the “price” at which coins last moved up the chain. With almost half of that tied to recent whale purchases, much of Bitcoin’s supply has ended up in stronger hands.
From a technical perspective, these dynamics help explain BTC’s resilience.
Despite growing market FUD and capitulation pressure, BTC has now spent four weekly closes chop within a certain range above $85,000. If this behavior continues, it doesn’t seem that far-fetched to call a Bitcoin bottom.
Final thoughts
- On-chain metrics still indicate stress, yet BTC continues to hold above $85,000, indicating underlying strength.
- Nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s realized limit is now driven by new whale buyers, indicating a rotation of supply from weak hands to stronger holders, reinforcing BTC’s potential bottom.