Bitcoin’s recent surge has divided analysts. Some warn of a deep pullback, while onchain trackers point to a mild correction that could already be coming to an end.
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Traditional analysis shows risk
According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone’s post on X, the move below $100,000 may not be complete yet. He called a decline from recent highs possible “Speed bump Towards $56,000,” and said previous rallies have often returned to the 48-month moving average, which is now near $56,000.
This view implies the potential for a sharp decline – almost 50% from recent peaks – if the current downward trend continues. Short, sharp statements from established market commentators have raised concerns among some investors.
Onchain signals point to a milder decline
Reports have revealed data from Glassnode and XWIN Research Japan that paints a different picture. Bitcoin fell to $99,000 on November 4, the first time it fell below the $100,000 mark in more than four months, but later restored to about $101,500, according to Coingecko.
$100,000 Bitcoin – A Speed Bump Toward $56,000?
“Look at the chart” has been a mantra of Bitcoin bulls, but the market gods can refresh the humility if prices move too far. Synonymous with humility is mean return, and my look at the graph shows how normal it has been for the… pic.twitter.com/ijzJ8L4SjT— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 6, 2025
Onchain metrics such as market value to realized value, or MVRVhave fallen to levels that marked local lows in the past. Glassnode highlighted the relative unrealized losses, which currently stand at 3.1%.
The numbers at this level have historically been aligned with mid-cycle corrections rather than outright bear markets. The company noted that losses below the 5% threshold were mostly orderly revaluations, not panic-induced sell-offs.
Bitcoin: Long-term forecasts are being recalibrated
Based on reports from ARK Invest, Cathie Wood has lowered her long-term Bitcoin projection by $300,000. She previously predicted a top of $1.5 million in 2030; the reduction implies a new peak target of approximately $1.2 million.
Wood said competition from stablecoins in emerging markets is somewhat reducing demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. This move shows that even long-term bulls are adjusting their assumptions as the market shifts.
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Market sentiment is tested through figures and stories. Short-term price swings have been wide, but some key onchain indicators remain within ranges that do not indicate extreme stress.
At the same time, leading analysts and venture capital leaders continue to warn of much deeper retracements. Investors must weigh technical patterns, blockchain metrics and evolving views on demand factors such as stablecoins.
Featured image of Gemini, chart from TradingView