A worst-case scenario is now on the table. Some analysts say Bitcoin could fall as low as $41,000 if a bear flag pattern currently forming on the price charts occurs – a warning signal that is drawing attention as the cryptocurrency trades near $66,000, about half of what it was worth at its recent high.
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Geopolitical shocks come at a bad time
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices soaring this week, roiling global markets and driving down risky assets. Bitcoin was caught on sale.
Prices fell below $66,000 as traders factored in rising energy costs, stubborn U.S. inflation and new bond market tensions. The timing of the geopolitical flare-up has made an already fragile pricing policy more difficult to defend.
A carry flag pattern – a technical chart signal where prices briefly consolidate after a decline before falling further – is now visible on Bitcoin’s chart.
Based on reports from market analysts, the pattern places an initial downside target near $50,000, with the $41,000 level emerging as a deeper bottom as selling pressure increases.
Bitcoin is down 47% from its peak. That kind of pullback may sound alarming, but analysts who track long-term crypto cycles say it fits a pattern that has emerged before.
A cycle that has happened before
Data shows that Bitcoin tends to lose momentum in the medium term. Reports going back to 2014, 2018 and 2022 show a recurring sequence: prices start the year relatively stable, disappear from late Q1 to early Q2, and then drop during the summer months. The 2026 price action has closely tracked this historical average.
On average now it is about when #Bitcoin continues its decline in the middle years. pic.twitter.com/JZ7Rcx2wJY
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 27, 2026
Analyst Benjamin Cowen, who has followed Bitcoin’s multi-year cycles, points out what he calls the dip zone in the middle of the cycle – a phase that usually follows a major bull run and extends over several quarters.
According to Cowen, gap years are not crash events. They are cooling off periods. Rallies lose steam. Volatility is increasing. Corrections take longer than most investors expect.
That description fits what is happening now. After a strong run in 2025, Bitcoin’s performance has taken a turn this year negativeconsistent with the type of softening seen in previous cycles.
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Patience may be the only remaining strategy
For long-term Bitcoin holders, the message from analysts is clear: this has happened before and it always ends eventually.
But the short-term picture offers little solace. The macro pressures are piling up at the same time that Bitcoin’s chart structure is weakening, and there is no clear catalyst in sight to reverse the trend.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView