As January comes to an end, volatility is gradually increasing.
On the macro side, two major events are unfolding: first, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and second, the U.S. employment data. Together, these events will set the stage for a potentially turbulent week for risky assets.
That said, the timing couldn’t be better for Bitcoin [BTC]. BTC’s 30-day Open Interest (OI) has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, which is a key signal of how these macro events could influence Bitcoin’s next move.
Source: CryptoQuant
The biggest takeaway? The market does not run on ‘blind optimism’.
That’s a big shift in particular from the fourth quarter, when BTC’s OI overheated to $94 billion. This time the OI is under control and the positioning appears in the market prices because there is only a 13% chance of a rate cut in the next FOMC.
In short: the market may be leaning towards caution rather than blind optimism.
From a technical point of view, with a tough macro week This would help prevent another market crash. For Bitcoin, however, it could actually create conditions ripe for a more measured move toward six figures.
Macro FUD is rising, but Bitcoin could find a window for a rally
Bitcoin’s momentum in early 2026 has not yet led to FOMO.
On the institutional side, Bitcoin ETFs are still looking good outflowthe latter of which totals $400 million. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) was in the red at the time of writing. In short, demand from US investors remains subdued.
However, the weakening labor market could change the dynamics. In fact, data shows that the number of vacancies fell by 885,000 in the past twelve months, bringing the ratio of vacancies to unemployed to 0.91.
Source: Kobeissi letter
Against that backdrop, the market might view just a 13% chance of a rate cut as overly cautious. Instead, with US unemployment steadily rising, a rate cut feels increasingly priced in rather than saved.
This is specifically where BTC’s cooling stats come into the picture. In the absence of ‘blind optimism’, current positioning could actually work in Bitcoin’s favor, charting a cleaner path to a more sustainable rally.
In the meantime, so has BTC above the $85k level despite a soft institutional offer – A sign of underlying conviction. If this trend continues, a move towards the $100,000 level in the first week of February would not be out of reach.
Final thoughts
- With rate risks, weak labor market data and low interest rate cut expectations, markets remain cautious.
- Bitcoin is holding above $85,000, opening the door for a moderate push towards the $100,000 level if conditions persist.