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As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to soar to new highs, setting bullish expectations for the remainder of the cycle. The latest reports from Bitfinex suggest when BTC’s peak could come and how much upside remains for the flagship crypto.
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Bitcoin’s ‘unique’ cycle
In its latest Alpha report, Bitfinex marked the great strides the crypto industry has made this year in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition, setting this cycle apart from previous ones.
In particular, the launch and increasing institutional demand of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded expectations and attracted a “new class of investors” to the crypto space.
According to the report, this cycle has been “unique” as these new investors, attracted by ETFs and increasing confidence in the sector, sent BTC’s price to a new ATH ahead of the Halving event, pushing the flagship crypto to historically a new high led after 5-7. months.
The industry has also seen growing interest in diversifying national reserves with cryptocurrencies, with several jurisdictions around the world considering implementing a strategic Bitcoin reserve following the recent performance of the flagship crypto.
According to Bitfinex analysts, these factors have kept BTC’s corrections smaller than other cycles and will likely continue this trend for the remainder of the bull run:
In the current bull cycle, which began in mid-to-late 2023, corrections for Bitcoin have been smaller, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand providing consistent buying pressure, we expect this trend to will continue, keeping the future market stable. corrections limited and possibly shorter in duration.
Furthermore, the emerging crypto-friendly US administration contributed to the growing bullish sentiment around the sector, leading to the massive post-election rally. As a result, the crypto market has grown 130% this year to a market cap of $3.69 trillion, marking an increase of almost 70% this quarter.
What’s next for Bitcoin this cycle?
The report noted Bitcoin’s performance, highlighting its 573% increase from its 2022 low of $15,487. The flagship crypto has also seen a 130% increase year-to-date (YTD), fueled by its performance of the sector this year.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark for the first time, setting a new ATH closer to the $110,000 level on Monday. According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency still needs to climb several levels in 2025 as historical data indicates the market is in the middle of the cycle.
This data suggests that the price of BTC will likely peak around the third and fourth quarters of 2025, as this is approximately 450 days after the halving. Meanwhile, figures like Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) and the Bull-Bear market indicator indicate that “we are still in the bull phase, but far from euphoric peaks.”
Bitfinex also explained that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective at timing cycle highs, predicting the peaks within a three-day period. The previous cycle’s predictions indicate that Bitcoin could peak between mid-2025 and early 2026.
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If it follows the 2021 cycle pattern, BTC could see its price rise 40% to $339,000 and peak around June or July 2025. Nevertheless, the report notes that the flagship crypto has been showing a trend of diminishing returns throughout the cycles.
Based on this, Bitcoin’s price could instead rise by 15% to 20% to the $160,000-$200,000 range. However, if the cryptocurrency mirrors the 2017 cycle pattern, BTC’s rally could continue until January 2026, peaking at $229,000, with similar diminishing returns.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below its ATH.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com