Many in the crypto world have echoed a familiar sentiment in recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Bull Theory experts argue that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely being postponed and could extend into 2027.
Why the four-year cycle may be coming to an end
In a recent one after on social media platform
They emphasized that significant price movements over the past decade were not caused solely by halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.
The analysts pointed to the current stablecoin liquidity landscape, which remains elevated despite recent recessions, indicating that larger investors are still active in the market and ready to invest when the right macroeconomic conditions arise.
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In the US, Treasury policy emerge as crucial catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the bigger story lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which currently stands at around $940 billion – almost $90 billion above the normal range.
This excess money will likely flow back into the financial system, improving financing conditions and adding liquidity that tends to skew toward risky assets.
Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth around $135 billion, in addition to efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.
Canada is also moving to ease its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted this policy quantitative sharpening (QT) measures – a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.
Political and monetary factors are aligning to create a bullish situation
The analysts explained that when major economies simultaneously implement expansionary monetary policies, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to react faster than traditional stocks or broader markets.
Furthermore, potential policy instruments, such as the Additional leverage ratio (SLR) relief – introduced in 2020 to give banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets – could return, resulting in greater credit creation and overall market liquidity.
There is also a political dimension to take into account. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including eliminating the income tax and paying $2,000 in rate dividends.
Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chairman who supports liquidity support and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could strengthen the conditions for economic growth.
Extended Bitcoin Uptrend
Historically, when the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI) crosses 55, followed by periods of altcoin season. The likelihood that this will happen in 2026 seems high, according to the Bull Theory.
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The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash into the markets, global quantitative easing, the QT freeze in the US, potential bank loan relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector point to a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.
The analysts concluded that if liquidity increases simultaneously in the US, Japan, China, Canada and other major economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to buck this trend.
Therefore, instead of experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged one bear marketthe current environment points to a more extensive and broader upward trend that could extend into 2026 and into 2027.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com