On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) again fell below the significant $90,000 mark, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Is $37,000 on the horizon?
Neuner marked that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing a so-called “super cycle,” the crypto market is still struggling to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: what is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have peaked around early October, where it briefly reached $125,000.
Historical trends show that Bitcoin typically experiences a significant decline of 70 to 80% after these peaks. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downside of around $37,000 in the event of a full-blown bear market.
Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performance in both equities and commodities, market corrections are to be expected.
During periods of risk in the stock markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, helping to build pressure towards the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin could be around $57,000, where the 200-week moving average (MA) is located.
Critical Bitcoin Support Levels to Watch
The direct factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent decline below the $90,000 threshold are related to increased volatility in global bond and stock markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.
Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downward trend has been fueled by several macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies, which have contributed to market instability.
As a result, investors have turned to safe assets such as gold, which recently reached a record price of more than $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be undervalued.
Demand for downside protection in the Bitcoin options market is also increasing, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines.
The next major levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term are between $84,000 and $85,000, according to Bloomberg, which is expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to maintain these levels, fears of a deep bear market could grow.
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