- Bitcoin’s transition phase was 227 days at the time of writing, as the market waited for a bull run.
- Supply at fairs dropped as HODLers continued HODLing.
Bitcoins [BTC] price has finally broken through the $30,000 mark, thanks to its recent uptrend after languishing below that threshold for several weeks.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
While this rise may herald a bullish period for the king coin, a recent report from Glassnode suggested that the market was still in transition.
Bitcoin transition continues
Bitcoin has made a remarkable step in its price trend, crossing the $30,000 threshold. While this breakthrough is significant, it has not yet led to a full-fledged bull run, as data from Glasnode.
The market was still in transition at the time of writing, suggesting that further developments are needed before a sustained upward trend can be established.
Bitcoin’s previous market phases have been easy to judge by their duration to gain an understanding of what lies ahead. We could benchmark by looking at the number of days spent in bull markets, bear markets, and transition periods.
The transition phase is measured from the all-time low (ATL) of a cycle until a new all-time high (ATH) is reached.
Assuming the November 2022 lows remain intact, the market can be said to be in a transition period of 227 days. Historical data indicates that previous transition periods lasted between 459 and 770 days, suggesting that investors should wait an average of 8 to 18 months until a new market ATH.
Source: Glassnode
During these transition periods, Bitcoin prices fluctuate within the range of realized price and realized price + 0.5 standard deviation. It is important to note that at the time of writing, the bear market has lasted 593 days.
Current price development
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $30,600, reflecting a marginal increase of less than 1% in its value. The ongoing trend showed a bullish character, evidenced by the positioning of the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The RSI was above 70, indicating a strong bull trend and an overbought condition.
Historical patterns have shown that a corrective trend usually develops when the RSI enters this zone. Therefore, this suggested the possibility of an imminent correction soon.
Source: TradingView
The supply on exchanges continues to fall
A consistent decline could be observed when examining Bitcoin supply on exchanges. At the time of writing, exchange offerings accounted for 6.2% of total supply, according to data from Sanitation.
These numbers were consistent with Glassnode’s findings, indicating that Bitcoin holders took a patient approach, eagerly awaiting the asset to enter a full-fledged bull trend.
Source: Sentiment
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In addition, an analysis of active addresses and volume data on Santiment revealed that regular activity within the Bitcoin network continued. This observation further reinforced the idea that holders were biding their time during the ongoing transition phase.
It suggested that they maintained their positions and patiently anticipated favorable market conditions before taking any major moves.